COVID-19: Third wave likely to hit India in August: Report

India is most likely to witness a third wave of the COVID-19, stated a study led by Manindra Agrawal and Mathukumalli Vidyasagar by the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Kanpur and Hyderabad, respectively.

Created On: Aug 2, 2021 14:42 IST
COVID-19, Source: PTI
COVID-19, Source: PTI

India is most likely to witness a third wave of the COVID-19 by August 2021 which may peak by October 2021 with 100,000 cases in the best-case scenario or approximately 150,000 cases in the worst scenario, stated a study led by Manindra Agrawal and Mathukumalli Vidyasagar by the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Kanpur and Hyderabad, respectively.

As per media reports, Mathukumalli Vidyasagar stated that States with a high number of COVID-19 cases such as Maharashtra and Kerala could ‘skew the picture’.

Based on the same mathematical model, these researchers in May 2021 had accurately forecasted that India could witness a peak in the number of COVID-19 cases and could hit 20,000 cases per day by the end of June.

COVID-19: Third-wave likely to hit India in August: Report

•The study is based on a mathematical model. The researchers stated that the third wave is unlikely to be as severe as the second wave when the country reported more than 400,000 daily COVID-19 cases.

•However, India will have to expand its vaccination coverage, detect emerging hotspots, implement surveillance methods, and stay alert about new variants to study them with genome sequencing.

•The researchers have also issued a warning that Delta variant could fuel the third wave. According to the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Consortium (INSACOG), Delta variant caused 8 out of every 10 COVID-19 cases in May, June, and July 2021.

India: COVID-19 Tracker

•India overcame the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic recently, now reporting around 40,000 daily cases.

•Kerala accounts for the highest number of COVID-19 cases with over 20,000 cases in a day.

•As of August 2, 2021, India’s active COVID-19 caseload is at 4,13,718, with 40,134 cases in the past 24 hours. India’s vaccination coverage has crossed 47.22 crores, with 17 lakh doses administered in the past 24 hours.

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