IMS Health released The Global Use of Medicines: Outlook through 2016 Report on 3 February 2014. The Report has forecasted that global spending on medicines is rebounding and is expected to touch 1.2 trillion dollar by 2016.
Main highlights of the report:
• Global market for medicines is poised to rebound from an expected low point of 3-4 percent growth in 2012 to 5-7 percent in 2016.
• Growth in annual global spending is forecast to more than double by 2016 to as much as 70 billion dollars up from a 30 billion dollars pace in 2013.
• Health systems in developed economies will experience slow growth in medicine spending. Spending on medicines in developed nations will increase by a total of 60-70 billion dollars from 2011 to 2016, following an increase of 104 billion dollars between 2006 and 2011.
• Health systems in pharmerging markets will nearly double their medicine spending in five years. Annual spending on medicines in the pharmerging markets will increase from 194 billion dollars in 2013 to 345-375 billion dollars by 2016, or 91 dollars in drug spending per capita.
• Patent expiries, which will peak in 2012, as well as increased cost-containment actions by payers, will constrain branded medicine spending growth through 2016, at 0-3 percent.
• Developed markets are expected to experience their lowest annual growth this year, at less than 1 percent or 3 billion dollars, and then rebound to 18-20 billion dollars in annual growth in the 2014-16 period.
• Manufacturers of small molecule generics will experience accelerating growth. Global generic spending is expected to increase from 242 billion dollars in 2011 to 400-430 billion dollars by 2016.
• Providers will have more treatment options due to additional new medicines being launched. Global launches for New Molecular Entities (NMEs) will rebound during the next five years.
• Biologics manufacturers will benefit from expanding market opportunity. Biologics are expected to account for about 17 percent of total global spending on medicines by 2016.
The Reports highlights with respect to Indian Pharma sector
• The attractiveness of Indian pharma sector is forecasted to get dim by 2016.
• As a result, India has slipped from the 8th rank as forecast in 2016 to the 11th position in 2017.
• Since 2006, the market registered a healthy double-digit growth, driven by a vibrant economy and a steady rise in incomes.
• After clocking a CAGR of 15% during the period 2008-12, the market has slowed progressively, and registered a lower growth of 9.9% in 2013.
• However, IMS expects the Indian market to pick up and grow in double digits to register a CAGR of 12% for the period 2012-17.
• The downgrade suggests that the Indian market may not be growing at the pace projected earlier, and has lost value due to the currency fluctuation, impacting the country's global ranking.
The Report has defined Developed markets as the U.S., Japan, Top 5 Europe countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, U.K.), Canada and South Korea.
Pharmerging countries are defined as those with greater than 1 billion dollars in absolute spending growth over 2012-16 and that have GDP per capita of less than 25000 dollars at purchasing power parity: China, Brazil, India, Russia, Mexico, Turkey, Poland, Venezuela, Argentina, Indonesia, South Africa, Thailand, Romania, Egypt, Ukraine, Pakistan and Vietnam.
About IMS Health
The original name of the company was Intercontinental Marketing Services, hence the IMS name. IMS Health's corporate headquarters is located in Danbury, Connecticut, USA.
IMS Health was founded in 1954 by Bill Frohlich and David Dubow.
IMS Health’s products and services are used by companies to develop commercialization plans and portfolio strategies, to select patient and physician populations for specific therapies, and to measure the effectiveness of pharmaceutical marketing and sales resources. The firm uses its own data to produce syndicated reports such as market forecasts and market intelligence.