The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on 23 December 2015 released the 2015 OPEC World Oil Outlook (WOO).
First published in 2007, the WOO offers a thorough review and assessment of various scenarios related to the medium and long-term development of the upstream and downstream sectors of the oil industry.
As per the report, oil and gas, combined, are expected to supply around 53 percent of the global energy demand by 2040.
Highlights of 2015 OPEC World Oil Outlook
• Global energy demand is set to increase by almost 50 percent in the period to 2040, with the overall energy mix continuing to be led by fossil fuels at almost 78 percent.
• Medium-term oil demand is revised upward, compared to the WOO 2014, rising above 97 million barrels a day (mb/d) by 2020.
• Oil demand is projected to be at 110 mb/d by 2040.
• Long-term demand is dominated by the developing Asia region, which accounts for 70% of the increase by 2040.
• Non-OPEC liquids supply increases from 56.5 mb/d in 2014 to around 60 mb/d in 2020, a downward revision of 1 mb/d compared to the WOO 2014. By 2040, non-OPEC liquids supply falls below 60 mb/d.
• OPEC crude expands by 10 mb/d to a level of 40.7 mb/d by 2040 – an increase of 1 mb/d compared with 2014 publication.
• The long-term value of the OPEC Reference Basket is assumed to rise from more than 70 US dollars per barrel in 2020 to 95 US dollars per barrel by 2040 (both in 2014 dollars).
• At the global level, oil-related investment required to cover future demand for oil over the forecast period 2015–2040 is estimated at almost 10 trillion US dollars, in 2014 prices.
• A review of existing refinery projects indicates that around 7 mb/d of new distillation capacity will be added globally in the period 2015–2020.
• Surplus refining capacity in the medium-term has eased over the past year; but the outlook continues to point to a period of competition for product markets and the need for additional closures remains.
• Required cumulative distillation capacity additions are projected to be around 20 mb/d by 2040.
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