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El Niño has surpassed a historic temperature record as unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific persist and elevate concerns about possibly massive weather disruptions in the upcoming months. According to Fox Weather, the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) reached +3.04°C on September 20, thus surpassing the previous record of +3.02°C of November 2015.
Ocean Temperatures Break Record
The fresh reading records the highest ONI value reported since daily records began in 1982. ONI measures tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature changes against a 30-year average and has previously been used to assess El Niño intensity.
However, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has retired ONI as its main operational measure and now utilises the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), which accounts for warming across the tropical oceans.
The present RONI value is about +2.50°C, below the RONI record of +3.48°C set in December 1982.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a changing climate pattern linked with unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It can change atmospheric circulation and influence rainfall, temperatures and storm patterns far beyond the Pacific.
The present occurrence has been regarded as potentially reaching “Super El Niño” strength. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated that previously this month the event could become the strongest recorded, with an almost 100% chance of persisting through February 2027.
Prediction for Future
The unusually warm tropical Pacific could accentuate atmospheric moisture and trigger higher global temperatures in the short term. The impact of a powerful El Niño can vary considerably by region, thus leading to heavier rainfall in some areas while maximising drought risks elsewhere.
The US Climate Prediction Centre's outlook for December 2026 through February 2027 indicates that wetter and stormier conditions are expected across the southern United.
Global risks
The bolstering event is also being closely observed outside the United States. Reuters reported that WMO expects El Niño's effects to continue into 2027, possibly causing warmer global temperatures and soaring vulnerability for agriculture, water supplies and other climate-sensitive sectors.
Impact of El Niño on India
India could grapple with higher temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns as the bolstered El Niño continues into early 2027. Its seasonal outlook signals a strong possibility of above-normal temperatures across the Indian region too.
For India, the major concern remains a possible impact on rainfall and the monsoon system. WMO forecasts for July-September 2026 have hinted at a higher chance of below-normal rainfall over parts of the Indian subcontinent, although the effect of El Niño is not the same and can be influenced by other climate drivers. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will also be a crucial decider, as WMO expects a positive IOD to occur, which can change or partly negate the typical impacts of El Niño over India.