Indian Monsoon 2026: Early Rains or Interrupted Spell? What is Super El Nino 2026 and How it is Impacting Weather

An unprecedented and possibly historic climate change is already occurring in the tropical Pacific Ocean and it can alter India's weather calendar of 2026 and beyond.

The most recent oceanic analysis has confirmed a major subsurface warming in the tropical Pacific, and data show that the phenomenon will potentially become Super El Niino by the second half of 2026. This transition is a complete atmospheric overhaul. This new warm period is fueled by a huge oceanic Kelvin wave being produced in the eastern Pacific, which is as a result of strong westerly trade winds. 

The Severe Weather Europe mentions: “This emerging warm phase is powered by a massive oceanic Kelvin wave currently surfacing in the eastern Pacific, driven by powerful westerly trade winds. Such intense warming in the tropics will greatly alter the global jet stream, impacting temperatures and precipitation across North America, Europe, and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere this summer.”

If we go further then Paul Roundy, an ENSO expert at the University at Albany, SUNY has reported that unusual westerly winds in the western tropical Pacific are already stronger than it was in spring of 1997, during the early development stages of the super El Nino effect of 1997-98, and says that there is real potential of the strongest El Niino in 140 years. 

What Exactly Is a "Super El Nino"?

It is a term that describes the increase in the surface temperature of oceans atleast 2 degree celsius. 

The USGS mentions: “The term El Niño (Spanish for 'the Christ Child') refers to a warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures, in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The low-level surface winds, which normally blow from east to west along the equator (“easterly winds”), instead weaken or, in some cases, start blowing the other direction (from west to east or “westerly winds”). El Niño recurs irregularly, from two years to a decade, and no two events are exactly alike. El Niño events can disrupt normal weather patterns in the United States and globally.”

Although officially there is no existing definition of a super event, El Niño is commonly referred to as a super event when its peak anomalies are at minimum +2.0 C.

How Does El Nino Weaken India's Monsoon? 

The southwest monsoon (June-September) of India is the saviour of the country and its yearly rainfall (approximately 70-80 percent) nourishes the farmland and feeds the population (more than 1.4 billion) of the country. Its distribution and strength are however acutely sensitive to the conditions in the Pacific Ocean.

The intensity of the summer monsoon of India mainly relies on the temperature difference between land and ocean. Change in atmospheric patterns can weaken the winds which transport moisture across the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. An intense El Nino, assuming that it occurs, would augment heatwave conditions in North and Central India and also increase low monsoon rainfall risks. 

The Science Direct mentions: “ENSO is typically specified by the elevated SSTA in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, which causes an eastward displacement of Walker circulation. This leads to inhibits convective activity due to abnormal subsidence over the Indo-Pacific Ocean, weakening low-level monsoon circulation through easterly wind patterns and resulting in a reduction in ISMR.”

During the El Nino, the trade winds that normally blow the warm surface water to Southeast Asia and Australia, shift to the east of the Pacific. This significant change in atmospheric circulation causes the warmer ocean water to push the air upwards and causes excessive rainfall in the central and east Pacific. 

The consequence is a significant atmospheric circulation change in the world. Concurrently, regions like the Indian Ocean and some regions in Africa experience falling air currents, which decrease rain and raise the temperatures. 

The India Meteorological Department indicates that El Niino years usually result in the decline of rainfall and increase in temperatures in most regions of the country. 

Skymet's First Official 2026 Monsoon Forecast

Skymet, a private weather forecasting agency, indicated that the normal rainfall India for June to September period will be 6 percent less this year, at 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) because of the negative effects of El Niño. 

The report states: “India’s Southwest Monsoon 2026 is expected to remain below normal, with seasonal rainfall projected at around 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA).”

Jatin Singh, Managing Director of Skymet Weather Services, told Business Standard: "There is a good chance of rural distress this year if the monsoon remains weak, but we hope 2026 does not turn into a major drought. The power sector may also remain under stress."

Which Regions of India Will Be Most Affected?

With regards to geographical aspects, Skymet foresees the Central and Western region that is the core monsoon rainfed to experience insufficient rainfall. Less-than-normal rains are likely to be experienced in Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, especially in August-September. The East and northeastern areas will be better placed as compared to the other areas in the country. 

In the past El Niino years have been linked to droughts in Central, Western and South India, where important crop producing areas are located. Summer high temperatures are common. Prolonged heatwave is experienced in states such as Rajasthan, Maharashtra and Gujarat. The increased rate of evaporation causes soil moisture and water reservoirs to dry up. 

IMD's Heatwave Warning for Summer 2026

On 31 March, the India Meteorological Department issued a forecast that 2026 is likely to experience a hotter summer than normal, with large temperature variations anticipated throughout the nation. Between April and June, the maximum temperatures are predicted to be higher than normal in some locations in East and Northeast India, parts of Central and peninsular regions. The IMD has also forecasted more days of heatwave especially in the coastal belts like Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh. 

The IMD report mentions: “During the 2026 hot weather season (April–June), maximum temperatures are likely to be normal to below normal over many parts of the country except most parts of east and northeast India, as well as eastern parts of central India and adjoining peninsular regions where above-normal maximum temperatures are expected.”

“During April 2026, Above-normal heatwave days are likely over many parts of coastal areas of Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Andhra Pradesh and isolated regions of Gujarat Maharashtra and Karnataka,” it adds.

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