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Mexico's Pacific coast is bracing for Hurricane Polo, which is slated to make landfall today in Baja California Sur after weakening from a stronger storm. Authorities have prepared shelters, restricted access to beaches and taken precautionary steps as Polo endangers the region with strong winds, heavy rain, dangerous surf and potentially life-threatening flooding.
Hurricane Polo weakens but remains dangerous
According to the US National Hurricane Center, Polo was a Category 3 hurricane on Sunday, with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph (200 km/h). The storm was approximately 200 miles (320 km) from Baja California and moving north-northwest at around 12 mph (19 km/h).
Forecasts indicated that Polo could weaken further before reaching land, potentially making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane. However, forecasters warned that even a weaker storm could topple trees and power lines and cause structural damage.
Heavy rain raises flood threat
The major concern is not only wind strength but also the amount of rainfall expected from the storm. Polo is forecast to bring 4 to 8 inches of rain across parts of Baja California, with some areas of Baja California Sur potentially receiving up to 12 inches.
The National Hurricane Center has warned that such rainfall could trigger life-threatening flooding and mudslides, particularly in mountainous and steep terrain. The storm is also expected to generate high surf and dangerous coastal conditions.
Evacuations and emergency measures along Mexico's Pacific coast
Authorities have already taken precautionary measures along Mexico's Pacific coast. Evacuations, port closures and school cancellations have been reported in areas facing the storm threat.
In San Jose del Cabo, authorities restricted access to beaches as large waves and dangerous surf affected the resort city. Mexico's Navy and Defence Ministry deployed around 7,000 personnel to Baja California Sur and opened 169 facilities that can serve as temporary shelters.
The storm has also caused casualties and disruption before its expected landfall. Two minors died in Jalisco after their home was swept downstream, while their parents remained missing, according to the state's Civil Protection and Fire Department.
Hurricane Polo's Forecast Path
After crossing the Gulf of California, Polo is forecast to move towards northern Mexico, including Sonora and Chihuahua. Its weakening trend could reduce wind damage, but rainfall and flooding risks may persist as the system moves inland.
The storm follows a period of intense tropical activity in the eastern Pacific. Earlier in its development, Polo rapidly intensified and reached Category 5 strength before subsequently weakening.
The storms are forming amid El Niño, a climate pattern marked by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. El Niño can alter atmospheric circulation, wind patterns and ocean temperatures, potentially creating conditions that support tropical cyclone activity in some parts of the Pacific.
However, El Niño alone does not determine the formation or strength of an individual storm. Other factors, including ocean heat content, atmospheric moisture and wind shear, also play a significant role in influencing cyclone development and intensity.