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Israel’s October 27, 2026, parliamentary election could prove decisive for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political future. The vote comes amid persisting regional conflicts, the war on Gaza, domestic political clashes, and soaring condemnation of the government’s security policies. Although opinion polls signal that Netanyahu’s right-wing alliance is trailing the opposition, the election result alone may not decide who becomes prime minister.
Will Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu win the Upcoming Parliamentary Elections?
Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats, and a government needs the support of at least 61 members. Under the country’s proportional representation protocols, parties must negotiate coalitions to gain a parliamentary majority. No single party has ever won an outright majority, making negotiations between political groups central to the government establishment.
Netanyahu could return to power if his Likud party secures enough support from its traditional allies.
If Netanyahu clinches the upcoming Israeli legislative election, it will mark the beginning of his fourth separate stint in office (or referred to as his 4th overall tenure), or the start of his 7th government cabinet.
These encompass far-right parties led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, alongside ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism. Even if Netanyahu’s bloc falls short of expectations, he could seek support from smaller parties or negotiate fresh political alliances.
An opposition-led government is another major possibility. Four major opposition groups have agreed to cooperate to end Netanyahu’s tenure. Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot is regarded as a prominent candidate to lead such a government, while former prime minister Naftali Bennett could also become a contender. However, differences between opposition parties could harden negotiations.
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Who can be Kingmakers in the Israel Parliamentary Election 2026?
Arab-led parties could become kingmakers. Ra’am and the Joint List, which represent Palestinian citizens of Israel, are expected to win a massive number of seats. Their support could help the opposition assemble a majority. Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas has hinted at a willingness to join a governing arrangement in exchange for action on crime, housing and discrimination. Nevertheless, numerous opposition leaders have ruled out a formal alliance with Arab-led parties.
Israel Election 2026: All Outcomes Possible
Other possibilities include a minority government depending on outside parliamentary support, a national unity government uniting rival political camps, or a settlement permitting two leaders to serve as prime minister at varied times. Such arrangements have been attempted before but have struggled to achieve stability.
If negotiations subside, Israel could witness another election and continued political uncertainty. Netanyahu would stay caretaker prime minister until the latest government takes office.
Therefore, the election’s result will depend not only on votes but also on coalition negotiations. Even if Netanyahu’s opponents secure more seats, forming a stable government will remain a major hurdle.
How Israel Votes in Elections?
Israelis do not vote directly for the PM or elect individual lawmakers from local constituencies. Instead, they cast their ballots for political parties or electoral lists, which submit candidates in a predetermined order.
The country serves as a sole electoral constituency. Therafter, Israel allocates parliamentary seats depending on the nationwide vote share secured by each qualifying party or list.