Millions of Indians, specifically farmers are looking at a surprisingly dry horizon as early July monsoons are expected to arrive anytime soon. But the effect of June being the direst in the last 100 years seems to continue in July 2026.
The southwest monsoon hit a huge roadblock with the entire subcontinent going through a 40% monsoon deficit in June 2026.
July is going to be another month with below-normal rainfall forecast as per the official India Meteorological Department (IMD) reports released by Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra.
Indians can expect precipitation to hang under 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA) due to the strengthening El Niño impact on monsoon circulation.
As the sluggish monsoon season is progressing with a snail’s speed, let’s read more about the rainfall deficit on agriculture and what the latest forecast for July 2026 monsoons is.
Driest June Since 2009 Threatens Kharif Crops in India
The month of June wrapped up as the third-driest June India has witnessed in the last 100 years to the point of surpassing the extreme drought years of 2009 and 2014. The country received a mere 92.2 mm of rain against the normal benchmark of 157.7 mm.
But that’s not the worst part. This historic dry spell of June has severely hit the agricultural calendar of India.
Farmers across Central and Eastern India which are among the regions worst hit by the shortfall have been forced to delay the sowing of vital kharif crops like paddy, pulses, cotton, and oilseeds.
A total of 300 districts are in a vulnerable position due to low irrigation coverage as per the Union Agriculture Ministry. The impact of this vulnerability will be visible through rising consumer concerns over potential spikes in food inflation later this year.
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What is the Regional Rainfall Forecast for July 2026?
The historical baseline LPA for July stands at 280.4 mm which is a critical quota the country is unlikely to meet. Take note of the following table for reference:
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Indian Region
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June 2026 Deficit (in %)
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July 2026 Rainfall Projection
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Central India
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-50% to -54%
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Below Normal
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|
East and Northeast India
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-40% to -41%
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Below Normal (with isolated exceptions)
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|
Northwest India
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-30% to -31%
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Normal to Above Normal
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|
South Peninsular
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-27% to -28%
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Below Normal
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El Niño and Weather Patterns Stalling Monsoon Progress
Meteorologists point to a combination of hostile global weather systems for this sudden climate disruption. A transitioning phase from a La Niña winter into a strengthening El Niño summer has severely weakened the monsoon winds.
Then there is an unfavorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) near the Equator. It is responsible for suppressing the formation of necessary low-pressure systems in the North Indian Ocean. The energy needed to drive consistent rainfall across the country is simply missing and leaving atmospheric channels weaker than usual.