CSO released Provisional Estimates of National Income for FY 2014-15

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) on 29 May 2015 released the provisional estimates (PE) of national income for the financial year (FY) 2014-15 both at constant (2011-12) and current prices.

As per it, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant prices in the FY 2014-15 will grow at 7.3 percent while at current prices it is expected to grow at 10.5 percent.

Besides, CSO also released the quarterly estimates (QE) for the fourth quarter (January – March) of 2014-15. At constant prices, in Q4 GDP is estimated to grow at 7.5 percent while at current prices it is estimated to grow at 7.7 percent.

Main Highlights

• In absolute terms, Real GDP (at constant prices) in FY 2014-15 is expected to grow to 106.44 lakh crore rupees.
• In 2014-15, real Gross Value Added (GVA), that is, GVA at basic constant prices is estimated at 98.27 lakh crore rupees and growth rate is estimated at 7.2 percent.
• The gross national income is estimated to have risen by 7.3 percent during 2014-15, in comparison to the growth rate of 6.8 percent in 2013-14.
• The per capita net national income in real terms (constant prices) during 2014-15 is estimated to have attained a level of 74104 rupees as against 69959 rupees in FY 2013-14 (RE).
• The growth rate in per capita income in real terms is estimated at 5.9 percent during 2014-15 as against 5.4 percent during 2013-14.
• India's annual per capita or average income (in current prices) in 2014-15 stood at 87748 rupees from 80388 rupees in 2013-14.
• The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups, food articles, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 6.1 per cent, 2.4 per cent, 5.7 per cent and 2.0 per cent, respectively during 2014-15.
• The consumer price index has shown a rise of 6.4 per cent during 2014-15.
• In terms of GDP, the rates of Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current and constant prices during 2014-15 are estimated at 28.7 percent and 30.0 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 29.7 percent and 30.7 percent, respectively in 2013-14.

Sector-wise Growth

• The sectors registering growth rate of over 7.0 percent in 2014-15 are ‘trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’, ‘financial, real estate and professional services’, ‘electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services’, ‘public administration, defence and other services’ and manufacturing.
• The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’ and ‘construction’ is estimated to be 0.2 per cent, 2.4 per cent and 4.8 per cent respectively.
• The third advance estimates of crop production released by the Ministry of Agriculture show a decline of 2.3 percent in food grain production in 2014-15  to 251.12 million tonnes (MT) as against 257.07 MT in second advance estimates.
• The growth of ‘mining &quarrying’ is estimated at 2.4 percent, as against the Advance Estimate (AE) growth of 2.3 percent.
• The growth of ‘manufacturing’ sector is estimated at 7.1 percent, as against the AE growth of 6.8 percent. The performance of corporate performance in manufacturing sector has also been taken into account. 
• The ‘Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting sectors’ have registered a growth of 10.7 percent in 2014-15 as against 8.4 percent in the AE.
• The sector, 'financial, real estate and professional services', has shown a growth rate of 11.5 percent during 2014-15 as compared to growth rate of 13.7 per cent in the AE.
• The sector ‘public administration, defence and other services' has shown a growth rate of 7.2 percent in the PE, as against the growth rate of 9.0 per cent in the AE.

Comment

The provisional estimates of GDP for the FY 2014-15 vindicate the growth projection for Indian economy by various world bodies like IMF, World Bank amongst others. According to these bodies, India is set to become the world's fastest growing major economy in the world, overtaking China's 7.3 percent growth.

Further, at 125.4 lakh crore rupees (2.02 trillion US dollars as on March 2015) India's GDP at current prices has officially crossed the 2 trillion US dollars mark making it the world's 10th largest economy.

However, despite the current slowdown, at 10.3 trillion US dollars China's economy is five times bigger than India, while the USA remains the world's largest economy at 17.4 trillion US dollars.

Further, experts have pointed out that there were anomalies in the data as manufacturing shows an estimated growth of 7.1 percent for 2014-15, which under the index of industrial production (IIP) data for factory output was 2.3 percent.

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