Drug-resistant TB cases may spike in India by 2040: Study

A new study has found that India could witness an alarming spike in cases of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis by the year 2040.

The study was published on 9 May 2017 in the prestigious medical journal The Lancet.

The study indicates that drug-resistant TB could make up one in ten cases of the disease in the country in the next two decades.

A similar spike has been forecasted for Philippines, Russia and South Africa too.

Key highlights of the study

• The study forecasted the percentage of MDR tuberculosis among incident cases of tuberculosis.

• As per the study, it will make up 12.4% of the TB cases in India, 8.9% in the Philippines, 32.5% in Russia, and 5.7% in South Africa in 2040.

• It also predicted the percentage of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis among incident MDR tuberculosis to increase, reaching 8.9% in India, 9.0% in the Philippines, 9.0% in Russia, and 8.5% in South Africa in 2040.

• By 2040, a third of tuberculosis cases in Russia are predicted to be drug-resistant, compared with one in ten in India and the Philippines, and one in 20 in South Africa

• Acquired drug resistance would cause less than 30% of incident MDR tuberculosis during 2000–2040. Acquired drug resistance caused 80% of incident XDR tuberculosis in 2000, but this estimate would decrease to less than 50% by 2040.

About tuberculosis

• Tuberculosis is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

• It generally affects the lungs, but can also affect other parts of the body.

• The disease spreads through the air when people who have active TB in their lungs cough, spit, speak or sneeze.

• Prevention of the disease involves screening those at high risk, early detection and treatment of cases, and vaccination with the bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine.

• One-third of the world's population is thought to be infected with TB. New infections occur in about 1% of the population each year.