CSO released estimates of GDP for April-June quarter of 2015-16

Central Statistical Office (CSO) on 31 August 2015 released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the April-June quarter of 2015.

As per the estimates, India grew by 7 percent during the first quarter of the 2015-16 financial year. Thus, India remained the fastest growing major economy of the world for a second straight quarter.

India had overtaken China as the world’s fastest growing major economy in the January-March quarter, growing 7.5 per cent against China’s 7 per cent.

Highlights of the CSO estimates

• GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q1 of 2015-16 is estimated at 27.13 lakh crore rupees as against 25.35 lakh crore rupees in Q1 of 2014-15, showing a growth rate of 7.0 percent. In terms of GVA it is 7.1 percent.
• The economic activities which registered growth of over 7 percent in Q1 of 2015-16 over Q1 of 2014-15 are manufacturing, trade, hotels and transport & communication and services related to broadcasting and financial, insurance, real estate and professional services.
• Growth in other areas: agriculture, forestry and fishing (1.9), mining and quarrying (4.0), electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services (3.2), construction and public administration, defence (6.9) and other services (2.7).
• Gross Capital Formation (GCF) rate, a barometer for investments, continued to decline. It was down to 27.8 per cent from 29.2 per cent in April–June 2014.

Comment

As per a recent forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India will remain as the fastest growing major economy during 2015. It will grow at 7.5 per cent in 2015 compared with China’s 6.8 per cent and 3.3 per cent of advanced nations during the same period.

Volatility in China’s stock markets in recent times coupled with its shrinking economic activities especially in the manufacturing sector are expected to result in India’s predominance over China in terms of growth rates.

However, India’s growth momentum largely depends on growth in the agriculture sector. India couldn’t surpass the growth rate of January-March quarter (7.5) during the Q1 of 2015-16 (7.0) largely due to low growth rate in the agriculture sector caused by unseasonal rains during the rabi season.

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