Chance of White Christmas in the U.S. on December 25, 2025: Is there anything more magical than waking up to a blanket of fresh snow? As the holiday season gets closer, everyone is wondering what the odds are of having a White Christmas in 2025. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says that a White Christmas means that there is at least one inch of snow on the ground by 7:00 a.m. on Christmas morning.
This year, the forecast paints a divided picture. While the Northern Tier, specifically Minnesota, North Dakota, and the Rockies, remains the best bet for snow, a Pacific warm front threatens to melt the chance of a White Christmas for much of the South and East Coast.
Knowing the latest odds is important whether you want to make a snowman or just want to travel on clear roads. We look at the historical probabilities and the Christmas Weather forecast for 2025 below to see which states are getting lucky this year.
What is the White Christmas Weather Forecast 2025?
Historical weather data provides a baseline for what to expect, but current weather patterns determine the reality. Based on data from NOAA and recent 2025 forecast models, here is the likelihood of snow for key regions.
States with High Chance of White Christmas
The following American states have more than 70% probability of receiving snow on Christmas Eve and day this year.
| State | Region | Historical Chance | 2025 Outlook |
| Fairbanks/Interior | > 99% | Guaranteed. Heavy snowpack is currently in place. | |
| Northern Tier | 70% - 85% | Very High. Deep freeze will preserve existing snow. | |
| Plains | 75% - 90% | High. Fresh snowfall expected before Dec 25. | |
| Mountain Areas | 60% - 90% | Likely. Especially in higher elevations like Sun Valley. | |
| Northern New England | 70% - 85% | Likely. Burlington and ski areas are holding snow. | |
| Upper Peninsula | 60% - 90% | High. Lake-effect snow is active. |
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States with Moderate to Low Chance of White Christmas
Unlike the above-mentioned U.S. States, the one tabulated below has a 50% or below likelihood of White Christmas.
| State | Region | Historical Chance | 2025 Outlook |
| Denver/Plains | ~48% | Toss-up. Mountains are snowy; city chances are 50/50. | |
| NYC / Upstate | 13% (City) - 60% (Upstate) | Mixed. Rain/Snow mix expected for the City; Snow for Upstate. | |
| Chicago/Midwest | ~35% - 40% | Moderate. Cold front may bring last-minute flurries. | |
| Boston/Coastal | ~20% | Low. Warmer Atlantic air may turn snow to rain. | |
| Washington DC | Mid-Atlantic | 6% | Very Low. Temperatures expected to be above freezing. |
| South | < 1% | None. Green Christmas expected. |
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Where to Go for Snow on Christmas this Year?
If you are determined to see snow this year, your best bet is to head North or High. As noted by NOAA data, the Rockies (Colorado, Wyoming, Montana) and the Sierra Nevada (California) are the most reliable spots. Even if the cities are dry, a short drive into the mountains often guarantees a White Christmas.
Additionally, States like North Dakota and Minnesota rarely miss out. Their sub-freezing December temperatures ensure that once snow falls, it stays.
Pre-Christmas Eve winter weather is forecast to spread across the Northeast tomorrow bringing light to moderate snowfall and light freezing rain for some. Heavier snow is likely into Wednesday across the coastal plain of Maine, where over 6 inches of snow is possible. ☃️🎄 pic.twitter.com/xz3wnW2Je2
— NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC) December 23, 2025
As we count down the final hours to Christmas 2025, the weather map offers a mix of winter wonderlands and green landscapes. While the chance of a White Christmas is solid for the Northern U.S. and mountain regions, those on the East Coast might have to settle for festive rain. Regardless of the forecast, safe travels and a happy holiday season to all! For the most accurate hour-by-hour updates, keep checking your local National Weather Service listings.
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