Kerala Exit Polls 2026: LDF vs UDF vs NDA, What Top Pollsters Say
Kerala Exit Polls 2026: The 2026 Kerala Assembly Elections exit polls are out, indicating a neck-and-neck battle between LDF and UDF, with the UDF slightly ahead in the 'Poll of Polls' average. With a high voter turnout of 78.27%, the NDA is also a significant factor, making this election potentially the closest in Kerala's political history.
Kerala Exit Poll 2026: the Kerala Assembly Elections 2026 are finally out after a high-stakes campaign where theLeft Democratic Front (LDF) sought a historic "triple century" (three consecutive terms) and the United Democratic Front, (UDF) fought a "do-or-die" battle to return to power. Kerala recorded a significant 78.27% voter turnout with the NDA emerging as a potent spoiler in several triangular contests, especially in Thrissur and Thiruvananthapuram, the 2026 verdict is expected to be the most closely contested in Kerala’s political history.
Kerala Exit Polls 2026 Results: Pollster Seat Projections
The following data represents the initial projections released by major agencies after 6:30 PM on April 29, 2026. The magic number to form the government is 71.
Pollster / Agency | LDF (CPI-M+) | UDF (INC+) | NDA (BJP+) | Others |
| Matrize | 60-65 | 70-75 | 3-5 | 2-4 |
| Mega Exit Poll-News 18 | 58-68 | 70-80 | 0-4 | |
| Axis My India | 49-62 | 78-90 | 0-3 | 0 |
| Peoples Pulse | 55-65 | 75-85 | 0-3 | 00 |
| People Insights | 56-68 | 66-76 | 10-14 | 0-1 |
| Vote Vibe | 58-68 | 70-80 | 0-4 | |
| P-Marq | 60-65 | 70-75 | 3-5 | 00 |
| Poll of Polls (Avg) | 63 | 72 | 3 | 2 |
Also Check: Tamil Nadu Exit Polls 2026: DMK vs AIADMK vs TVK, What Top Pollsters Say
Kerala Exit Poll 2021 — Exit Poll Predictions vs Final Results
The 2021 election was a landmark moment where the LDF, led by Pinarayi Vijayan, defied anti-incumbency. Most pollsters correctly predicted a return for the Left, though the margin of victory (99 seats) exceeded many expectations.
| Pollster | LDF (Predicted) | UDF (Predicted) | NDA (Predicted) | Actual Result 2021 |
| Axis My India | 104–120 | 20–36 | 0–2 | LDF: 99 |
| Today’s Chanakya | 93–111 | 31–49 | 0–3 | UDF: 41 |
| C-Voter | 71–81 | 59–69 | 0–2 | NDA: 0 |
| CNX | 72–80 | 58–64 | 1–5 | Others: 0 |
Kerala Election Results - Seat Comparison: 2016 vs 2021 vs 2026
The 2026 election is defined by a high-octane campaign focusing on development vs. corruption allegations, with the NDA attempting to turn three-cornered contests into actual seat wins.
| Party/Alliance | Seats 2016 | Seats 2021 | Seats 2026 |
| LDF | 91 | 99 | Awaited |
| UDF | 47 | 41 | Awaited |
| NDA | 1 | 0 | Awaited |
| Others | 1 | 0 | Awaited |
Vote Share Comparison: 2016 vs 2021 vs 2026
Kerala recorded a massive 78.23% voter turnout on April 9, 2026. While the LDF historically maintains a solid floor, the UDF has shown resilience in high-turnout scenarios. The NDA's ability to maintain its 12–15% vote share remains the "X-factor" for the other two fronts.
| Alliance | Vote Share 2016 | Vote Share 2021 | Vote Share 2026 |
| LDF | 43.48% | 45.43% | Awaited |
| UDF | 38.81% | 39.44% | Awaited |
| NDA | 14.96% | 12.36% | Awaited |
Pollsters like Matrize have recently suggested a neck-and-neck battle, with the LDF projected between 61–71 seats and the UDF close behind at 58–69 seats. With the majority mark at 71, Kerala might be heading toward one of its tightest finishes in history.
Manisha Waldia is a distinguished content strategist with 5 years of experience crafting premium educational content for UPSC and State PCS, with a focus on deep conceptual analysis across Polity, Geography, History, and Environment. She currently brings this expertise to Jagran Josh, where she covers major national and international events, current affairs, and static general knowledge. Over her career, Manisha's specialized insights have led her to curate high-impact materials and serve as a UPSC Mains answer-evaluator for India’s top institutes—including Drishti IAS, Shubhra Ranjan IAS, Study IQ, GS Score, and PWonlyIAS. She has also worked alongside leading NGOs like Oxfam India and Avani Kumaon.
Contact: manisha.waldia@jagrannewmedia.com
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