Pakistan Sees Severe Water Crisis, 25% Rabi Shortfall: Is Indus Waters Treaty Fallout with India Causing it?

Pakistan is entering the 2026-27 Rabi cropping season with a forecasted water shortage of about 25%, thus igniting concerns over wheat production and food security. The situation has also renewed interest on India-Pakistan water ties and the future of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).

Pakistan faces 25% Rabi water shortfall

According to Pakistan’s Dawn, reservoir carryover has dipped below 9.5 million acre-feet (MAF), the lowest level for the start of a Rabi season since 2021. Rabi starts on October 1 and wheat is its most vital crop.

Pakistan’s water availability for Rabi is slated to be around 21-22 MAF, below estimated needs. The country presently faced a wheat production shortfall in the last season. Production was estimated at about 27.5 million tonnes against a target of 29.7 million tonnes and consumption needs of 31.9 million tonnes. Islamabad later ordered wheat imports.

Reservoir levels and provincial pressure

The decline in storage is fuelling pressure to Pakistan’s internal water-sharing system. Storage in Tarbela and Mangla topped at about 11.6 MAF on September 9 before falling below 9.5 MAF.

The shortage could escalate differences among provinces over allocation. Dawn reported that the Indus River System Authority is expected to determine Rabi water availability and provincial shares, with Sindh and Punjab among the provinces witnessing allocation pressures.

What is the Indus Waters Treaty?

Signed in 1960 after negotiations mediated by the World Bank, the IWT divides the six rivers of the Indus system between India and Pakistan. The Western Rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab — were allocated to Pakistan for unlimited use, while the Eastern Rivers — Ravi, Beas and Sutlej — were allocated to India.

The treaty also allows restricted uses by each country of rivers allocated to the other, subject to specified conditions, including provisions controlling India’s hydroelectric projects on the Western Rivers.

Is India linked to Pakistan’s water shortage

The current Pakistani water shortage is mainly connected to low reservoir storage, river flows and domestic allocation pressures. It should not automatically be related to India.

However, the issue has a direct India angle because India announced in April 2025 that it was holding the IWT in abeyance following the Pahalgam terror attack. Pakistan has rejected that position.

In September 2026, the Permanent Court of Arbitration said India’s bid to suspend the treaty was not allowed under the treaty or applicable international law. Pakistan has mentioned the court ruling as confirmation that the treaty remains enforceable.

Water security and India-Pakistan ties

The recent shortage underscores how closely Pakistan’s agriculture and food security depend on the Indus river system. For India, the treaty conflict has become part of wider bilateral tensions involving security, water management and cross-border infrastructure.

The mix of lower storage, wheat shortages and continuing tensions over the IWT makes water security a pressing issue for both countries.