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ADB released Asian Development Outlook 2014 Supplement

Jul 19, 2014 16:12 IST

Asian Development Bank released the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2014 Supplement on 18 July 2014. In the outlook, ADB forecasted a stable outlook for developing Asia in 2014 despite slower-than-expected growth in the United States (US) in the first quarter.

It maintains ADB’s April 2014 forecast of 6.2 percent growth in 2014 and 6.4 percent in 2015 for the region’s 45 developing economies.

Main Highlights

  • The major industrial economies are anticipated to expand by 1.5 percent in 2014 compared to 1.9 percent forecast in April’s ADO 2014.
  • The People Republic of China is on track to meet ADO 2014 forecasts of 7.5 percent growth in 2014 and 7.4 percent in 2015 on back of steady consumer demand, targeted government measures to stabilize investment, and a pickup in external demand in the second quarter of 2014.
  • Indian economy is forecasted to grow at 5.5 percent in 2014 and at 6.3 percent in 2015. The improvement in the forecast has come on the back of formation of new government and its 10-point plan to revive the Indian economy prioritizing infrastructure and investment reforms, faster resolution of inter-ministerial issues, efficient policy execution, and policy stability.
  • Pakistan’s growth for the financial year ending June 2014 is forecasted to grow at 4.1 percent compared to the ADO 2014 forecast of 3.4 percent and Nepal’s growth was seeing a strong finish to its fiscal year.
  • Overall, South Asia’s 2014 forecast is nudged up 0.1 percentage points to 5.4 percent. The improved outlook in India pushes up the subregional forecast for 2015 from 5.8 percent  to 6.1 percent.
  • The outlook for Southeast Asia has softened as growth prospects falter in Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam. In Indonesia, first quarter 2014 growth slowed to 5.2 percent whereas Thailand’s economy contracted by 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2014.
  • Growth in Central Asia is gradually moderating, with many economies affected by the deteriorating outlook of the Russian Federation.Aggregate growth projections for the region are revised down to 6.3 percent in 2014 and further to 6.1 percent in 2015, from 6.5 percent forecast for both years in ADO 2014.
  • A devastating tropical storm in Solomon Islands and weaker-than-expected indicators for Palau and Timor-Leste are holding back growth in the Pacific. Overall, Pacific GDP is expected to grow 5.2 percent in 2014, a 0.2 percentage point decline from the ADO 2014 forecast.

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