Economic Survey 2011-12: Analysis

The Economic Survey was tabled by the Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on 15 March 2012. Indian economy was estimated to grow by 6.9% in 2011-12 mainly due to weakening industrial growth. The Survey stated that despite dip in the economic growth India remains among the fastest growing economies of the world. Country’s sovereign credit rating was stated to have risen by a substantial 2.98 percent in 2007-12.

The Survey highlighted the slowing down of the global economy as a prime reason for the dip in Indian economic growth. The global economy became adverse in September 2011, owing to the turmoil in the euro-zone countries. The slowdown was reflected in sharp ratings downgrades of sovereign debt in most major advanced countries. While a large part of the reason for the slowing of the Indian economy was attributed to global factors, domestic factors also played role.

Analysis

The slowdown in Indian economy was attributed largely to weakening industrial growth. The industrial sector has performed poorly, retreating to a 27% share of the GDP.

The services sector however continued to be a star performer as its share in GDP climbed from 58% in 2010-11 to 59% in 2011-12 with a growth rate of 9.4%. Agriculture and allied sectors were estimated to achieve a growth rate of 2.5% in 2011-12. Agriculture & allied sectors were are estimated to achieve a growth rate of 2.5% in 2011-12 with foodgrains production likely to cross 250.42 million tones as a result of increase in the production of rice in a number of states.

Overall growth during April-December 2011 reached 3.6% compared to 8.3% in the corresponding period of the previous year.

The fiscal 2011-12 was marked by a sharp depreciation of the Indian rupee. In the current fiscal 2011-12, on month-to-month basis the rupee depreciated by 12.4 per cent from 44.97 per US dollar in March 2011 to 51.34 per US dollar in January 2012. Rupee reached a peak of 43.94 on 27 July 27 2011 and lowest at 54.23 per US dollar on 15 December 2011 indicating a depreciation of 19 per cent. The RBI was required to sell dollars twice in the fiscal to help raise the value of the rupee.

Also in 2011-12 India’s external debt stock increased by US $ 20.2 billion (6.6 per cent) to US $ 326.6 billion at end-September 2011 vis-à-vis US $ 306.4 billion at end-March 2011, primarily due to higher commercial borrowings and short-term debt.

Inflation as measured by the wholesale price index (WPI) remained high during greater part of 2011-12 fiscal, though by year end a noticeable slowdown in price rise was registered. Food inflation, in particular came down significantly. RBI adopted stringent monetary policies to control inflation as well as curb inflationary pressures. The high rate of interest established by the central bank lowered growth rate of investment in the economy as the sharp increase in interest rates resulted in higher costs of borrowings and other rising costs affecting profitability.

Economic Survey 2011-12 stated that India’s foreign trade performance will remain a key driver of growth in the coming fiscal 2012-13. During the first half of 2011-12, India’s export growth was 40.5%, but it failed to remain high for the entire fiscal. Imports grew rapidly, by 30.4% during 2011-12 (April-December). India’s Balance of Payments widened to $ 32.8 billion in the first half of 2011-12, compared to $29.6 billion during the corresponding period of the earlier fiscal 2010-11.
The foreign exchange reserves increased from US $ 279 billion at end March 2010 to US $ 305 billion at end March 2011. Reserves were found to vary from an all-time peak of US$ 322.2 billion at end August 2011 and a low of US $ 292.8 billion at end-January 2012.

Wholesale Price Index (WPI) which remained persistently high throughout 2011 due to increasing global commodity prices and high crude prices began to moderate and it is expected to touch 6.5 to 7 percent by March 2012. Economic Survey 2011-12 observed that in 2011-12 the gap between WPI and CPI inflation narrowed due to sharp fall in food inflation. CPI-IW inflation, after remaining in single digit from August 2010 to August 2011, briefly touched double digits at 10.1 percent in September 2011. It however came down to 6.5 percent in December 2011.

The banking sector- public and private showed impressive increase in priority sector lending. The Economic Survey 2011-12 underlined the fact that flow of agricultural credit was highly impressive. The Indian banking system disbursed credit of Rs 446779 crore to the agricultural sector as against a target of Rs 375000 crore in-2010-11.

The Labour Bureau conducted twelve quarterly quick employment surveys to assess the impact of the economic slowdown on the employment sector. The surveys indicated an upward trend in employment since July 2009 was maintained. Overall employment in September 2011 over September 2010 increased by 9.11 lakh, with the highest increase recorded in IT/BPO (7.96 lakh) sector.

The coverage under the MGNREGA consistently increased from 4.51 crore households during 2008-09 to 5.49 crore households during 2010-11 with averaged employment of 47 persondays per household. Average wage increased from Rs 65 in 2006-07 to Rs. 100 in 2010-11. The Survey stated that to strengthen transparency and accountability in the implementation of the MGNREGA, the Government initiated a service delivery project for Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and biometrics related works of the MGNREGA on PPP basis.

The performance of broad sectors and sub sectors in key infrastructure areas in 2011-12 was both good and bad. Whereas there was improvement in growth in power, petroleum refinery, cement, railway freight traffic, passenger handled at domestic terminals and upgradation of NHAI, coal, natural gas, fertilizers, handling of export cargo at airports and number of cell phone connections show negative growth. Steel sector witnessed moderation in growth.

Forecasts

The real GDP growth is expected to pick up to 7.6% in 2012-13 and 8.6% in 2013-14 as per the survey. Pranab Mukherjee predicted 7.6% GDP growth in 2012-13. As per the survey, given that fiscal consolidation is back on track, savings and capital formation should is likely to start rising. Also the RBI policy rates are expected to be reduced in the back of easing of inflationary pressures. The lowered interest rates will encourage investment activity and have a positive impact on growth. These projections were all made on the basis of assumptions regarding factors like normal monsoons, reasonably stable international prices, particularly oil prices, and global growth. The progressive deregulation of interest rates on savings accounts is expected to raise financial savings and thus improve transmission of monetary policy.

Survey Suggestions

Sustainable development and climate change were recognized by the survey as central areas of global concern. The Survey suggested need to examine the linkages and trade-offs between policy rate changes and inflation in the Indian context, for better calibration of monetary policy.

The Economic Survey 2011-12 stated that it was essential to make lower carbon sustainable growth a central element of our Twelfth Five Year Plan commencing in April 2012.

In Conclusion

The Economic Survey in conclusion mentioned that India is more closely integrated with the world economy as its share of trade to GDP of goods and services tripled between 1990-2010. The extent of financial integration, measured by flows of capital as a share of GDP also increased leading to an expansion of India’s role in the world economy.

For more information on economic survey & budget Click here