Indian Economy Would Dominate the Economy of the World by 2030: US Intelligence Community Report

US intelligence community in its report called Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds which was released on 10 December 2012 declared that India would straddle international commerce and will also dominate the economy of the whole world by 2030. This would happen with decelerating Chinese economy as well as declining West.

Key points of the report:

•India’s chance of powering would begin only after 2015 as China’s fortunes would start diminishing.
•By the year 2030, Asia (mainly India) would return back to its position of being the powerhouse of the world, like it was before 1500.
•Pakistan might not exist at all.
•India will rush forward after 2020 as China would begin decelerating, primarily on certain demographic trends.
•China is indeed ahead of India, but the gap between India and China would start zeroing in by 2030. The economic growth rate of India will surge while that of China will slow down.
•In 2030, India might be rising as the economic powerhouse just like China is today. The current economic growth rate of China, 8-10 percent would become just a memory for the country.
•Overall size of the working-age population in China would increase in 2016 and decrease from 994 million to 961 million in 2030. Contrarily, working age population of India would most probably rise until around 2050.
•The demographic opportunities of India will rise between 2015 to 2050. China’s opportunities’ window is from 1990 to 2025. Contrarily, US’s opportunity was best between 1970 to 2015.
•Median age of India which is at present 26 will increase to 32 by 2030, which would still be the least among top 10 economies of world.
•The report also mentioned that anytime after 2030, India instead of China would be having the largest middle-class consumption, which would be even larger than US and Europe combined. However, India might face trapping in the status of middle-income group in case the resources constraint, especially food, water and energy are not resolved. More investment would be required in science and technology sector in order to keep the pace of economy in the value chain.
 
It was however made clear that the journey of economic development of both India as well as China will not be smooth. But if the difficulties were handled well, India as well as China would be dominating the world in 2030.

About Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds

The latest National Intelligence Council's (NIC) Global Trends Report was released on 10 December 2012 by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. This report is called Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. Global Trends project offers expertise beyond government on certain factors like demography, environment, globalisation. The documents are prepared by Global Trends to assist the makers of policies in long-term planning on major issues which hold worldwide importance.

First Global Trends Report was released back in 1997. New global trends report is being published after every four years after the U.S. presidential elections. For the production of Global Trends 2030, a range of analytical tools, in-depth research as well as detailed modeling was employed.