The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on 2 October 2013 that the net oil imports of Southeast Asia will be more than double by the year 2035, costing 240 billion US dollar. The oil imports of Southeast Asia will increase in order to fulfill the high energy demand growth. The role of IEA is co-ordination of the energy policy for the developed economies.
IEA announced that the net oil imports of Southeast Asia will increase to more than 5 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase from the current 1.9 million bpd. This is just behind European Union, India and China.
It is important to note that the ten countries of ASEAN will also join India and China in making Asia the global energy demand growth centre of the world because the per-capita energy use of Southeast Asia is very low even now. This is just half of the global average.
IEA explained that Southeast Asia faces an increased dependence on the oil imports and therefore, it will impose increased costs, thus leaving it more open to the potential disruptions. In this region, Thailand and Indonesia will be leading and their net oil import bills will be tripled to around 70 billion US Dollar each by the year 2035. The fuel subsidies will remain the primary factor in distortion of the energy markets.
The overall energy demand of Southeast Asia will increase by more than 80 percent by the year 2035 in order to support the tripling of the economy as well as population of Southeast Asian region. This also includes an increase in the oil consumption to 6.8 million bpd over 2011-2035 from the 4.4 million bpd at present.
With an increase in the energy demand, Southeast Asia will export less coal and natural gas. The major gas producers in Southeast Asian region include Brunei, Malaysia, Myanmar and Indonesia. All these gas producers will bring down the net exports from 63 bcm at present to 14 bcm in 2035.
The top exporter of thermal coal will be Indonesia, according to the forecast of IEA.