Explained: Ethiopia's Tigray crisis and its impact on the Horn of Africa

Nearly 30 years after the end of its 17-year civil war, Ethiopia is on the brink of another disastrous conflict. The heightening military encounter between the Government of Ethiopia and the State Government of Tigray region may destabilize 110 million population of the country. 

Ethiopian Prime Minister has ordered Tigray forces to 'surrender peacefully' within 72 hours as the Government troops advance on the capital, Mekelle. However, TPLF has vowed to keep fighting against the Federal Government.

"Your journey of destruction is coming to an end, and we urge you to surrender peacefully within the next 72 hours, recognising you are at a point of no return. Take this last opportunity," said Abiy Ahmed Ali, Ethiopian Prime Minister. 

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Why Ethiopian conflict has flared?

Since 1994, Ethiopia has had a federal system where different ethnic groups control the affairs of 10 regions. TPLF was influential in setting up the said system. 

Since 1991 after the military regime was ousted from power, the four-party coalition governed Ethiopia under which the country became more prosperous and stable, but concerns related to human rights and democracy were raised.

Subsequently, the discontent amongst the civilians led to protest, witnessing a government reshuffle. Abiy Ahmed Ali was appointed as the Prime Minister of Ethiopia. With his appointment on the Prime Ministerial post, a new political party was constituted-- The Prosperity Party. This liberalisation in politics saw the removal of key Tigrayan government leaders who were accused of corruption and repression. 

Amid this, the Ethiopian Prime Minister ended the long-standing territorial dispute with neighbouring Eritrea which earned him a Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. 

Tigrayan leaders saw the reforms made by the Ethiopian Prime Minister as an attempt to centralise power, destroying the federal system of Ethiopia. 

In September 2020, the feud came to a head after Tigray leaders defied the Central Government order to hold the regional elections in June 2020 due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. 

This denial led to the suspension of funds from the Central Government and cut off with the Tigray. On the other hand, the Tigrayan administration labelled it as a 'declaration of war'. Since then, both the administration have designated each other as 'illegitimate'.

The rift grew and Tigrayan forces began attacking the military bases of the Central Government, forcing the Central Government into a military confrontation on 4 November 2020. This led to a civilian massacre in the region. The exact number of deaths couldn't be reported due to the cut off on the internet and communication lines. 

On 24 November 2020, discussions were held between the Africa Security Initiative and the Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors at Brookings on the above-mentioned developments and the ways to contain it.

The country's internal conflict has now spilt outside to neighbouring Eritrea. Tigrayan militias fired rockets across the border into Eritrea as they claimed that Eritrea is helping the Central Government of Ethiopia against the Tigray. 

As per a report by BBC, Tigrayan leader Debretsion Gebremichael stated that over the past few days, his forces have been fighting 16 divisions of the Eritrean army. However, these accusations were denied by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali in a tweet without mentioning Debretsion’s claims or Eritrea.

Justice will prevail. Ethiopia will prevail! pic.twitter.com/1mNSPbAktQ

— Abiy Ahmed Ali 🇪🇹 (@AbiyAhmedAli) November 15, 2020

Impact on civilians

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reported that thousands of refugees had been crossing the border and arriving in Sudan after the military conflict and anticipated many more to arrive as the conflict escalates.

There have been humanitarian concerns in Ethiopia as phone and internet connections have been down since the beginning of the conflict. The Ethiopia-Eritrea war already displaced thousands of civilians and the latest conflict adds on in the number of displaced people and may lead to a humanitarian crisis in the country. 

The Ethiopian government is ready to receive and reintegrate our fellow Ethiopians fleeing to neighboring countries. We vow to our innocent civilians that have fled, to protect their property, enable humanitarian support by the ENDF and guarantee their peace upon return.

— Abiy Ahmed Ali 🇪🇹 (@AbiyAhmedAli) November 16, 2020

The impact of military conflict on the Horn of Africa

Amid the military conflict in Ethiopia, people are moving to Sudan in large numbers and the country may witness a civil war. Many experts are of the view that if this internal conflict spills outside Ethiopian borders, it has the potential to destabilise the Horn of Africa region.

Also, the United States and China have their strategic military bases in the region, the closest being Djibouti. Any impact on these military bases and facilities may result in the involvement of the respective countries in the internal military conflict of Ethiopia. 

I’m deeply alarmed over the situation in the Tigray region of Ethiopia.

The stability of Ethiopia is important for the entire Horn of Africa region.

I call for an immediate de-escalation of tensions and a peaceful resolution to the dispute.https://t.co/nWtI2JtGlu

— António Guterres (@antonioguterres) November 5, 2020

The enmity between Tigray and Eritrea

The enmity between Tigray and Eritrea dates back to the Ethiopian-Eritrean war that occurred between 1998 and 2000. As per a report by The New York Times, many veterans who participated in the said war between 1998 and 2000 are now part of the Tigray region's paramilitary forces. The animosity between the two continues to date. 

About Abiy Ahmed Ali

Nobel laureate Abiy Ahmed Ali is the youngest Head of Government in Africa. On 2 April 2018, he became the youngest Prime Minister of Ethiopia at the age of 41. Born of a Muslim father and Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church Christian mother, he is seen as an inspirational leader who would usher changes in Ethiopia.  

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