India GDP 2022: India GDP Growth Rate projected at 8.2-8.5 percent in FY 2022

India GDP 2022: India's GDP growth rate has been projected at 8.2-8.5 percent for FY 2022, as per the latest edition of State Bank of India's (SBI) research report Ecowrap. 

The report has projected growth at 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter of FY 2022. However, it added that the GDP projection for Q4FY22 is clouded by significant uncertainties. "For example, even a 1 percent downward revision in Q1 GDP estimates of FY22 from 20.3 percent, all other things remaining unchanged could push Q4 GDP growth to 3.8 percent," said the report.

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India's GDP Growth 2022: Key Highlights of the SBI Report

• The early trends for corporates in Q4 FY 22 reported better growth across parameters as compared to Q4 of FY21 despite a contraction in operating margin due to higher input costs. 
• The sectors including chemicals, steel, FMCG, IT-software, auto ancillary and paper have reported better growth numbers.
• The sectors such as cement, automobile, capital goods-electrical equipment and edible oil reported growth in Q4FY22 but registered negative growth in Profit After Tax (PAT).
• While there is rising inflationary pressure, the report states that it is skeptical about crude oil prices sustaining high levels for a long time. 
• The Reserve Bank of India is expected to hike policy rates during its  Monetary Policy Committee meeting in June. The cumulative rate hike in June and August is likely to be 75 basis points.
• The report added one of the positives of the pandemic time is the coordinated policy response by both the government and the RBI in mitigating the health crisis and now inflation.

Global GDP Growth

Globally, the average real GDP year-on-year growth in Q1 2022 for 25 economies was 5.5 percent, which is slightly higher than the preceding quarter.

The growth in the overall GDP is marking an abrupt reversal in major economies including the United States, Italy, France and Sweden. 

The US economy unexpectedly contracted in the first quarter of FY 2022 amid a resurgence in Covid-19 cases, which is the first decline in GDP since the sharp pandemic recession nearly two years ago.

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