Indian economy to grow by 6 percent: CRISIL

Ratings and Research firm CRISIL released its Indian Economic Forecast for 2014-15 on 21 January 2014.

The CRISIL projected that Indian economy will grow at 6 percent in 2014-15, which is significantly higher than the 4.8 percent CRISIL has forecast for financial year 2013-14.

The projected growth is achievable provided some key conditions are fulfilled. The key conditions include among others normal monsoons, continuation of the recent reform process and widely anticipated global recovery.

CRISIL is hopeful because of some of the major factors i.e., the partial declogging of the policy logjam witnessed for the bulk of the past couple of years. This, together with the improved global economic prospects, is expected to improve India’s GDP prospects the next fiscal.

The improved private consumption demand is another factor which is expected to trigger a mild revival in industrial growth which CRISIL expects to be at 6 percent for FY15. The sectors expected to gain from the improved demand are consumer durables, automobiles and textiles.

The mining sector is forecast to expand for the first time in three years. The recent momentum on resolving mining issues will continue into 2014-15 and will help address supply-side constraints for industries, particularly in the steel and power sectors.

 The integration of south India into the national power grid will help improve power availability for industries in the region.

Some of the recent forecasts

Agency                    GDP Forecast for 2014-15
IMF:                                          4.5Percent
Asian Development Bank:            4.7Percent
Moody:                                       5.5Percent
CRISIL:                                      6 Percent