Why US- China are preparing a war over Taiwan?

China-Taiwan war 2022: The latest visit by US Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan has sparked intense tensions between the two powerful countries- China and US. Noting that it is the highest-ranking visit by an American politician to Taiwan in 25 years, China has condemned Pelosi’s visit and has called it extremely dangerous. The tensions between the two countries- China and US- have increased as China sees Taiwan as a breakaway province that will eventually be under Beijing’s control, however, Taiwan sees itself as an independent country, with its own constitution and democratically elected leaders. The recent visit by US speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan is seen by China as an intrusion into its plan and is not being well received by Beijing.

Where is Taiwan?

Taiwan is an island that is roughly 100 miles from the Coast of South East China. Taiwan sits in the so-called ‘first island chain’, which includes a list of US-friendly territories that are also crucial to US Foreign Policy.

If China was to take over Taiwan, some western experts have suggested that it could be freer to project power in the Western Pacific Region and could possibly even threaten US military bases as far away as Guam and Hawaii. However, China has insisted that its intentions are purely peaceful.

Our delegation’s visit to Taiwan honors America’s unwavering commitment to supporting Taiwan’s vibrant Democracy.

Our discussions with Taiwan leadership reaffirm our support for our partner & promote our shared interests, including advancing a free & open Indo-Pacific region.

— Nancy Pelosi (@SpeakerPelosi) August 2, 2022

Why US-China are at loggerheads over Taiwan?

The United States has been engaging in a delicate balancing act between Taiwan and China. Washington follows ‘One-China' Policy, which recognizes Beijing but allows informal relations and defense ties with Taipei.

US provides arms to Taiwan- it is by far the largest arms dealer for Taiwan- and follows a strategic ambiguity policy about how far it will be willing to go to defend Taiwan in the face of Chinese invasion.

In recent times, tensions seem to have escalated between the US and China. In May, China made the second largest incursion into Taiwan’s air defence zone in 2022 with Taipei reporting 30 jets entering the area, including more than 20 fighters.

The president of the US Joe Biden raised eyebrows at China’s actions and said that the US would intervene militarily if Taiwan were attacked.

Why Taiwan is important for the rest of the world?

Taiwan’s economy is hugely important. Much of the world’s everyday electronic equipment-from laptops, watches, and game consoles- is powered by computer chips that are made in Taiwan.

By one measure, a single Taiwanese company- the Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing company or TSMC- has over half the world’s market. TSMC is a so-called ‘foundry’- a company that makes chips designed by consumers and military consumers. It is a vast industry that was worth almost $100 billion in 2021.
A Chinese takeover in Taiwan can give Beijing some control over one of the world’s most important industries.

Will there be a war between US-China over Taiwan?

As per the experts, there is little cause that a full-blown war over Taiwan will break out between the United States and China.

According to William Choong, a senior fellow at the Indian Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, there is a lot of rhetoric, but the Chinese have to mind the gap very carefully if they want to launch an invasion of Taiwan, so close to the Ukraine crisis. China’s economy is also far more disconnected from the global economy than Russia.

The experts on global relations have also added that both US and China are sticking to their guns on Taiwan. They need to look tough and don’t’ want to be seen as rolling back or stepping back.

However, at the same time, US and China are very mindful about entering an outright conflict. They are looking at each other’s rhetoric with eyes wide open, and both sides are trying to temper the risk.

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