Third Wave of Covid 19 Pandemic: When will it hit & how is India preparing against Coronavirus?

Third Wave of Covid 19 Pandemic: Why in News?

The second wave of Covid 19 has caused lakhs of lives in India and millions across the globe. Now there are many political heads in tussle on whether we could have been better prepared or where did India lag in fighting with Covid 19 second wave. 

The other major diseases that hit alongside Coronavirus were Black Fungus and Heart and Kidney disorders. These too claimed the lives of many. Now while India is tackling with post Covid symptoms, it has been predicted  that there would be a third wave within 6-8 months.

Recently, in a meeting with district magistrates and field officials of 10 states, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for the collection of data on the transmission of Covid-19 among youth and children in each district. 

About Third Wave: When can it hit?

Prof M. Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad, who heads the three-member committee said,"by the end of May, India will see about 1.5 lakh cases per day and by the end of June, the country will witness 20,000 cases on a daily basis"

But he also warned that a third wave of the pandemic could hit the country after about six to eight months. These predictions were made by him on the basis of the SUTRA Model which also has Prof Manindra Agrawal of IIT Kanpur and Lt Gen Madhuri Kanitkar, deputy chief of the Army Medical Service involved. 

What is SUTRA Model? Know all about India’s fight with second Covid wave

What is a wave?

It is the curve of any outbreak which reflects over the rise and fall of the number of cases over a defined period. The wave ends only when the virus has been contained and cases have fallen exponentially. 

Pandemic Phases:

Covid 19 has various phases:

1. The first phase is during which the virus replicates. It has mild symptoms
2. The second phase happens after 7-10 days. Inflammatory response starts kicking in which attacks the body cells and patients may feel coagulation. Steroids are generally administered during this time. 
3. In the third phase (long COVID or Post COVID Syndrome) many symptoms may take time to fade. 

Does Coronavirus attack in Waves?

The most well known reason for multiple waves is the mutation in the genetic code of the virus. The virus adapts and mutates well due to the slow vaccination process as well. The appearance of the virus changes continuously and it can bypass antibodies too once it adapts. This causes another strain and thus the next wave. 

Variants are just viruses mutating and evolving. There are changes in the viral genome as well. While most of the mutations are harmless, some are deadlier. 

For Example: The D614G mutant attacks the human respiratory cells more rapidly than the original coronavirus. 

WHO has four variants of concern, the latest being B1.617, found in India first and 50 more countries globally. This time in the second wave the percentage of the adult population that was exposed was around 21% and a similar proportion was observed for children. 

the term “wave” comes from the 1889-92 outbreak that had different phases supposed to have occured over multiple years- CEBM

Problems in India during the second wave:

When COVID 19 hit India the all time high of 97000 cases a day was observed in September 2020 but still it was ill disposed of in India. 

During the second wave during April 2021, India was ill prepared with a terrible healthcare system loophole. Moreover it wasn't expected by the Indian Government and authorities that Covid 19 second wave would hit so hard. 

Now there are cities where third and fourth waves are already being seen. The national capital saw its first peak in June (3,947 cases a day), the second in September (4,473 cases a day)and the third in November (8,953 cases a day) and fourth in April (28, 395 cases a day)

Third wave anticipation:

Many health professionals like Dr Gulleria of AIIMS have said that India would go into a third wave. However in case vaccinations are done in time, the wave would not be as deadlier as it has been now. Various states have been preparing on their own and with the Government's support this time.

How is India Preparing for the third wave:

Delhi has been preparing well. The Government has planned to create a special task force to protect the children from the third wave

Also an apt number of beds, oxygen and better management of essential medicines is on the task list for the state. We all had seen how Delhi went into an Oxygen crunch and had to see deaths of patients. 

In the third wave special attention would be paid to the children as they have not been vaccinated as yet in India. 

In Karnataka, the state’s women and child welfare minister Shashikala Jolle said that while paediatric Covid care centres are to be set up in various districts, rehabilitation centres would also be set up for the orphans.

BMC in Maharashtra has taken a step forward to create Creche facility for the children whose parents have been admitted in various hospitals or are fighting with Covid 19. They have also been focusing on pediatric Covid care. 

Let us hope that this time India is well prepared and there is cooperation between citizens and the Government. 

Also read| What is Black Fungus ? Know all about Covid triggered Mucormycosis here