Antarctica headed towards climate tipping point by 2060: All you need to know

A new study published in the journal Nature shows that the Antarctica ice sheet could reach a tipping point by about 2060.

This means if the global greenhouse emissions continue at the current rate, the Antarctica Ice Sheet (AIS) will cross a critical threshold leading to an irreversible global sea-level rise.

Antarctica’s Tipping Point

The Antarctica Ice Sheet, known to be Earth’s largest ice reservoir, is covered by several protective ice shelves. These ice shelves are grounded below sea level on the bedrock that is sloped inward to the center of the continent.

This inward slope exposes the ice shelves to warm ocean water flowing under them that can lead to thinning of their lower edges, thereby destabilizing and breaking up.

The breaking up of ice shelves leads to towering ice cliffs that are unstable and when they collapse, they accelerate the rate of ice flow into the oceans.

As per the computer model based on the physics of ice sheets used in the study, it was found that global warming above 2 degrees Celsius will lead to a steep increase in ice loss in Antarctica, especially through the ginormous Thwaites Glacier.

The Thwaites Glacier is equivalent to the side of Britain or Florida. It is a part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and a deep focus of study among scientists in the US and UK.

Currently, the world is on track to exceed 2 degrees Celsius with the current policies and emissions rate. Countries fulfilling the Paris Agreement targets is one way to drastically reduce the rising sea level.

Scientists fear that reversing ice loss would not be possible then and by 2100, the sea level rise would be 10 times faster than today.

Sea level rise can explode by 2100

•A new study by David Pollard, Robert DeConto, and Richard Alley shows that sea-level rise could most likely explode by 2150, exceeding 2.3 inches (6 cm) per year if the current emissions are not curbed by 2100.

•By 2300, sea-level rise is expected to be 10 times faster than today if countries fail to meet the Paris Agreement targets.

•Three major pathways to meet the Paris Agreement require keeping global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius to 2 degrees Celsius, remove sufficient carbon dioxide from the air to lower the temperature further, and cut global emissions by 50 per cent by 2030.

•The current policies would only help in cutting global emissions by 1 per cent by 2030.

Mission ‘reduce emissions quickly’

As the countries gear up for the Paris Agreement to be held in November and deliberate on a Climate Action plan, the ocean and polar scientists have three important messages to be noted:

•Every fraction of a degree counts.

•Allowing global warming to exceed 2 degrees Celsius can leave the coastlines submerged underwater. Technological fixes will not be able to reverse the devastating impacts.

•Polices must adopt a long view as these can have irreversible damage to Antarctica’s ice sheet and the world at large.

As more data comes to light about Antarctica, scientists say that it is becoming evident that this continent will determine the fate of the planet.