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Delhi Elections 2020: How accurate are exit polls?

Exit Poll culture arrived in India in the mid-1980s when Indian media started elections surveys.

Feb 8, 2020 18:30 IST
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Exit Polls are the opinion of voters coming out from polling-booth. This survey provides a broader perspective of voters’ choice. The accuracy of exit polls always remains under doubt because it is not a definite result of elections.

Exit Poll culture arrived in India in mid-1980s when Indian media started elections surveys. It was the time when private media started exit polls for elections in the country. However, Pubic broadcaster Doordarshan started exit polls from the year 1996. This exit poll was conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).

Exit Polls in 2015 Assembly Elections

In previous Delhi assembly elections held in 2015, the majority of exit polls predicted AAP as a winner. However, none of the exit poll agencies predicted that much of seats for AAP. India News-Axis poll predicted 53 seats while News 24-Today's Chanakya exit polls had predicted 48 seats for AAP. On the other hand, ABP-Nielsen poll predicted 39 seats for Aam Admi Party.

India TV’s exit poll predicted 31 to 39 seats and Zee TV-C Voter poll predicted 31 to 39 seats for AAP. The election results witnessed inaccurate predictions as AAP won 67 seats.

Exit Polls in Lok Sabha Elections

Exit Poll results of 1998, 2004, 2009 and 2014 elections were not accurate. It happened about four times when exit polls failed to deliver correct results. In 2009, exit poll predicted less than 200 Lok Sabha seats for UPA but it went wrong as UPA won 262 seats.

 “India Shining” witnessed the biggest exit poll failure. Almost all exit polls predicted Vajpayee’s return but he couldn’t receive majority. BJP failed to secure even 200 Lok Sabha seats. On the other hand, UPA was projected as opposition but it won about 218 seats and ran the government with help of SP, BSP and left parties.

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