Centre for Economic and Business Research (CERB) study released in December 2013 has predicted that UK will overtake Germany as Europe’s largest economy by 2030. At present Germany is at the top spot in Europe. It cites the UK's population growth as an aid to economic acceleration.
CERB has also predicted that strong growth by emerging economies like India, Russia and Brazil will make UK to slip down on the global ranking over the next two decades. It said that UK would be the second most successful western economy after US. Germany will slip in the position of the European economy to UK in 2030 because of its faster population growth and its less dependence on other European economies.
The report has echoed the recent confidence of other business groups such as the British Chambers of Commerce, BCC.
The CERB released its annual World Economic League Table in which the future ranking of the economic is done depending upon the ups and downs of the global economies. CERB in its release has also said that China will take over the US economy in 2028 and India will be in the third place. CERB compiled the forecasts of growth, inflation and currency values in its league tables to the size of economies, which was measured in US dollars in 2013, 2018, 2023 and 2028. In its release CERB has said that its prediction should be treated as a caution because of the unpredictable fluctuations in currencies.
As per the released report, India will overtake Japan as the third biggest economy in next 15 years with Brazil as the fifth biggest economy. The anti-deflation strategy would lead to the weaken of Yen for the future and would affect the value of dollar of its national output.
However, as far as Germany, the group said that should the euro break up, that Germany's outlook would be much better. As for France, the CEBR said it will be one of the worst performing of the Western economies, and will be overtaken by the UK by 2018. This is because of slow growth due to high taxation in addition to the general issues of eurozone economies.
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