NASA's Shocking Discovery: Will Asteroid Strike Earth in 14 Years?

Imagine researchers discovering a giant asteroid with a 72% chance of striking Earth in 14 years—a space rock massive enough to obliterate an entire city and wreak havoc across a vast region.

Recently, NASA specialists, government emergency managers, and international partners examined this dire scenario. According to a new NASA report, they conducted a tabletop simulation to bolster the nation's preparedness for potential asteroid threats.

Although there are no immediate threats, NASA's experiment underscores just how unprepared humanity is for a potential asteroid strike of this magnitude.

When was the Exercise Conducted?

According to an official report released by NASA, the agency held its fifth biennial Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise in April at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) in Laurel, Maryland. On June 20, NASA provided a detailed summary of the exercise.

What did NASA Find with This Exercise?

Though no severe asteroid threats are currently anticipated, the exercise aimed to assess Earth's response capabilities in the unlikely event of a potentially destructive asteroid impact.

"As of right now, we don't know of any large asteroids that pose a threat to Earth for the next century," reassures Terik Daly, the supervisor of planetary defense at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory. However, Daly continues, "We also know that we haven't identified most of the asteroids large enough to cause regional devastation."

Lindley Johnson, planetary defense officer emeritus at NASA Headquarters in Washington, explained that the uncertainties in the initial conditions of the exercise allowed participants to tackle a particularly challenging set of scenarios. She further noted, "Perhaps the only natural disaster that humanity can anticipate years in advance and take action to prevent is a large asteroid impact." 

Data from the April exercise in Laurel, Maryland, reveals that astronomers estimate there are about 25,000 "near-Earth objects" that are 140 meters or larger. However, only around 43 percent of these have been detected so far.

NASA’s Report: Three Findings

Experts in planetary defense conduct regular drills, including simulations like this one, every few years. These exercises follow the success of NASA's DART mission, which demonstrated that crashing a spacecraft into an asteroid can alter its trajectory. The latest scenario considered an asteroid with a diameter ranging from 60 to nearly 800 meters. 

However, the initial observations during the exercise were not enough to precisely determine the asteroid's size, composition, or long-term trajectory. Participants evaluated three options:

1. Wait for additional telescope observations.
2. Launch a U.S.-led mission to gather more data.
3. Build a spacecraft to spend time near the asteroid and potentially alter its trajectory.

This simulation, unlike previous ones, did not conclude with a spectacular outcome. According to Daly, "we remained focused on one scenario throughout the entire exercise," allowing for discussions on funding, communication, urgency, and practical issues.

The research indicates uncertainty about the availability of funding without more precise risk information. Daly points out that technical experts had previously assumed funding wouldn't be an issue, but "cost was absolutely a concern."

Meanwhile, NASA plans to launch a new telescope in the fall of 2027 aimed at identifying asteroids. "We need to discover what is out there, determine their orbits, and assess their potential impact risks to Earth over time," Johnson explained.