Taliban's swift military victory in Afghanistan has raised brows on what went wrong and how billions of dollars spent by the US on a 20-year war effort went in vain.
China is all set to realise its long-held hopes for a reduction of the influence of a geopolitical rival in Central Asia but is also concerned about the instability that the US withdrawal has created in the region. Through this article, let us have a look at China's interest in Afghanistan.
Rebuilding Afghanistan
Being one of the largest trading partners of Afghanistan, China is ready to offer political impartiality and economic investment in the country, but the detrimental security situation and the threats it could pose to China’s economic endeavours is an unsettling prospect for China. A more proximate threat may be the advancement of militancy into Pakistan and Central Asia, where it has invested heavily.
China's BRI initiative
China’s strategic Belt-and-Road Initiative is an effort to finance and build infrastructure across the region. If it is able to extend its BRI from Pakistan to Afghanistan, with a Peshawar-to-Kabul motorway, it would open up a shorter land route to gain access to markets in the Middle East. A new route through Kabul would also make India’s resistance to joining the Belt-and-Road less consequential.
It is to be noted that Pakistan is partly responsible for peace and stability in Afghanistan as the conjoined twins do not always look in the same direction. Pakistan’s Afghanistan policy is largely driven by ensuring a friendly government in Kabul and cutting India’s increasing influence in the country. Also, it is in China’s own interest to ensure that Pakistan and Afghanistan are on good terms.
China's projects in Afghanistan
China has chased commercial ventures in Afghanistan, but the prospects of such projects appear no closer to be completed now than they were over the past 20 years of the U.S. presence.
A consortium led by China Metallurgical Group Corp. bid $3 billion to develop what is one of the world’s largest copper deposits at Mes Aynak, promising also to build a power plant, railway and other infrastructure. The work is yet to start, largely because of insurgent activity in the surrounding Logar province.
China’s extensive economic interests in Pakistan and Central Asia could clearly be impacted by any terrorist resurgence in Afghanistan. China will not insert itself into Afghanistan’s domestic affairs, regardless of how the situation develops but would provide assistance to Afghanistan within its means. For the moment, China may wait and see how things develop in Afghanistan after the 2021 Taliban offensive.
Taliban's promise to China
The Taliban have vowed to break ties with international terrorist forces and protect Chinese investments in the country, but no one knows how and when they will carry it forward.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted a delegation led by the Mullah Omar confidant and Taliban's co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, last month and pressed China’s hopes for stability and an end to violence and terrorist threats.
UN Peacekeeping Mission
As China is the largest troop contributor to the UN peacekeeping missions, it has the opportunity to hold greater influence over Afghanistan's political landscape, in case a UN peacekeeping mission is deployed to Afghanistan. Neighbouring country's peacekeeping troops will be more welcome in Afghanistan than those coming from afar.
Incongruous partner to China
The Taliban could be an incongruous partner for China due to their religion-based philosophy, but this has not prevented Chinese leaders from reaching out to the Taliban.
Despite the rhetoric, China was willing to work with the U.S. to promote the swift landing of the Afghan issue.
However, the U.S. can neither deliberately curb and suppress China nor it can count on it to offer support and coordination. President Joe Biden has said leaving Afghanistan will prepare America to deal with bigger potential threats, including from China.
While Beijing is yet to formally recognize the Taliban government, it said that it respects the rights of the Afghan people to independently determine their own destiny and will develop friendly and cooperative relations with Afghanistan.
BackgroundIn 2001, President Hamid Karzai developed bilateral ties between Afghanistan and China. Since then, China began exploring commercial opportunities in mineral-rich Afghanistan but avoided getting involved in the politics or security situation in the country. The Ghani-led government in China advocated for greater Chinese involvement in Afghanistan to drive peace negotiations, regional connectivity and economic growth. |
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