India may cross China as the world's most populous country by 2027, forecasts a UN report published in 2019. The report stated that India will remain the most populated country through the end of the current century.
The report forecasted that India will add almost 273 million people to its population between now and 2050. India had an estimated population of 1.37 billion in 2019, while China had 1.43 billion.
This projection comes as China's population census released on May 11th revealed its slowest-ever growth in population in the last decade. As per the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics, China's birthrate has shown a steady decline since 2017 despite China's relaxation of its decades-old "one-child policy" amid fears over its aging population and shrinking workforce.
China's population growth in last decade
•According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's population rose by just 72 million to 1.411 billion in the past decade.
•In percentage terms, China's population grew by more than five percent over the past decade to surpass 1.4 billion people.
•Its birthrate in 2019, 10.48 per 1,000 people, was the slowest birthrate ever recorded in the nation since 1949.
•China's potential workforce between the age of 15-59 years has also decreased to 894 million, a 5 percent fall from 2011 peak of 925 million.
•The drop in population is expected to lead to labour shortages and a fall in consumption levels and this, in turn, is expected to impact the nation's economic outlook.
India to overtake China sooner than 2027
•According to Chinese demographers, India will overtake China to become the world's most populous country earlier than the UN report's projections of 2027.
•China's birth fertility rates have been low and they are expected to drop even further in the coming years, as it recorded 12 million births in 2020, marking a drop in fertility rates for the fourth consecutive year.
•China's total fertility rate of women of childbearing age was 1.3, which is a relatively low level. This number is expected to go further down in the coming years, as the number of women aged 22 to 35, which is the childbearing period, will drop by more than 30 percent compared with the present data in the next 10 years.
•Hence, the demographers predict that India with a higher fertility rate will overtake China as the world's most populous country by 2023 or 2024.
•China's population is predicted to peak by 2027 before it starts to decline but demographers predict the peak to come sooner as 2022.
What can stop China's population crisis?•China's newborn population is predicted to fall below 10 million in the next few years without strong policy intervention. Its fertility rate is expected to be lower than Japan's and in fact, become the lowest in the world. This is a demographic crisis in waiting for China. •To stop this impending crisis, China had pulled a stop on its one-child policy in 2016 and allowed two children. However, the move failed to have much impact on its declining population as few people came forward to have a second child. •China is now expected to lift all restrictions on the number of children that a couple can have. |
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