SpaceX Rocket part to crash into Moon in early March

A part of the SpaceX rocket that was launched seven years ago in 2015 is still floating in space, in what experts are calling a chaotic orbit. The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket was launched from Cape Canaveral in Florida in 2015 to put into orbit NASA's Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR).

The second stage of the rocket or the booster, weighing about 4-tonne, has been floating in space ever since. Based on recent observations and calculations by astronomers, it is going to crash into the Moon on March 4, 2022. 

The SpaceX rocket debris will reach the Moon years before it is scheduled to take astronauts back on the Moon's surface. Elon Musk's SpaceX has been selected by NASA to provide the spaceship to take astronauts back to the surface of the moon. The mission is though still years away.

When will the crash happen?

The rocket is expected to crash on the Moon on March 4, 2022. While there is still uncertainty about the exact time and place of the impact, according to astronomer Bill Gray, the crash is imminent. Gray is the developer of Project Pluto, a suite of astronomical software used to calculate the orbits of asteroids and comets.

Gray confirmed that it is certain that it is going to hit, and it will hit within a few minutes of when it was predicted and probably within a few kilometers. The likely crash site is expected to be the far side of the Moon, near the lunar equator. 

Why has the rocket been floating in space?

The rocket was too far after completing its mission of deploying the satellite at the Lagrange point, four times farther than the Moon, hence it did not have enough fuel to return to the Earth. It also did not have enough energy to escape the gravity of the Earth-Moon system. Therefore, the rocket has been hurtling through space, trapped in a chaotic orbit, for seven years.

The rocket debris made a close flyby to the Moon on January 5, 2022, which further altered its orbit. It is now expected to crash into the Lunar surface in March. 

What will be the consequences of the crash?

The crash of the 4-ton rocket on the lunar surface is unlikely to be a ‘big deal’, as per experts. However, the impact will eject some subsurface material that will provide some valuable data for scientists to study in the future.

This will be the first known case of a man-made object unintentionally hitting the Earth’s natural satellite. This would though not be the first instance of a man-made object crashing on the Moon's surface, as several past missions have crash-landed there including ISRO's Chandrayaan 2 lander. 

Will the crash be visible from Earth?

The crash is expected to occur on the far side of the Moon so it won't be visible from the Earth. Even if the crash occurs on the near side of the Moon, it will not be visible as it will take place just a few days after the New Moon. 

Recent close calls

With increasing space launches, instances of such crashes occurring in space are slowly becoming more common. Recently China complained that its space station had experienced two "close encounters" with Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites through 2021. The Chinese space station was then forced to move to avoid collisions.

Space debris a rising cause of concern?

Since the beginning of the space race, several human-made artifacts have been launched into space, causing debris to be floating around in space. While the space debris in low-Earth orbit is closely tracked due to the danger they may pose to the satellites and the International Space Station, the debris located at a distance like the SpaceX rocket is generally forgotten.

Astronomer Bill Gray said that he is the only person tracking these things. Gray immediately appealed to the amateur astronomer community to join him in observing the rocket part and his conclusion was confirmed. 

The observations predict an impact. The Astronomers will probably have just one more chance to look at the rocket before it swings out beyond the moon one last time. It is then expected to come in to hit the far side of the moon, out of sight of anyone from Earth.