The third wave of COVID-19 is likely to hit India in August 2021 and may peak in September, as per the new SBI Research report named ‘Covid-19: The race to finishing line' that released on July 5, 2021.
The SBI report also talks about the deadly second wave of COVID-19 in India and said that it peaked on May 7th. The second wave of COVID-19 had hit India in April and peaked in May, claiming thousands of lives and affecting thousands of families in Delhi, Maharashtra, Kerala and other states.
The SBI report stated that as per the current data, India can see a daily rise of around 10,000 cases around the second week of July. The cases are expected to start spiralling upwards by the second fortnight of August.
What is the basis of the SBI report?
• The SBI report has predicted the COVID-19 cases to start rising by the second fortnight of August and then peak around September based on global data trends.
• The global data trends show that on an average, the third wave peak cases are around 1.7 times the peak cases at the time of the second wave.
• India currently has a daily rise of about 45000 cases in the past 7 days, which shows that the second wave is not yet over yet, the report noted.
• As per the data, the total number of COVID cases declined gradually in the first wave as well with around 45,000 cases for 21 days.
On Delta Plus Variant
As per the SBI report, India has so far reported 51 cases of Delta Plus variant in 12 states by end of June. While the new cases in the top 15 districts, increased again in Jun 2021 but their fatality rate has been constant for three months.
On Vaccination
• The SBI report states that the overall vaccination in rural areas remains low. India currently is administering over 40 lakh vaccination doses per day.
• Few states such as Kerala, Karnataka, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Uttarakhand have vaccinated a greater proportion of the rural population in comparison to others.
• States like Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha and Uttarakhand have performed well in vaccinating the urban population.
Background
India informed on July 5, 2021 that 39,796 fresh Covid-19 cases, 42,352 recoveries and 723 deaths were reported in the past 24 hours. As of now, the total coronavirus case count in India stands at 3,05,85,229 while the death toll has climbed over 4 lakh. The nation currently has around 4.82 lakh active Covid-19 cases.
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