What is the Difference Between Opinion Poll and Exit Poll?

Have you ever noticed the constant predictions and analyses around election time? These numbers tell us who might win before the official counting is done. But where do these predictions come from? An Opinion Poll is a survey done before people vote. It asks voters who they intend to vote for. Its goal is to measure the public mood and support for parties during the campaign.
In contrast, an Exit Poll is a survey done immediately after people vote. It asks voters who they actually voted for as they leave the polling booth.

For instance, in the 2019 General Elections in India, one major agency's Exit Poll predicted the largest coalition would win 339-365 seats. The actual result was 353 seats, showing the power of post-voting data. The main difference is the timing of the survey. Opinion polls gauge intention; exit polls indicate action. In this article, we'll take a look at the precise distinctions between these two types of election surveys.

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Difference between Opinion Poll vs Exit Poll

The two main types of election surveys you hear about —Opinion Polls and Exit Polls —are very different, yet both predict election results. The key difference is when they are conducted—one is before you vote, and the other is after.

a) Opinion Poll

An Opinion Poll is like taking the public's temperature before the election happens.

What is it?

• It's a survey to find out who people intend to vote for.
• It measures the general mood, support for parties, and key issues during the election campaign.
• Opinion polls are usually conducted days, weeks, or even months before the actual voting day.

How is it done?

• A polling agency contacts a sample of the general population (a small, scientifically selected group).
• They use methods like telephone calls, online surveys, or in-person interviews in public places.

Example

Imagine there is an election next month. A news channel conducts an Opinion Poll and asks 1,000 random people:

• "If the election were held today, which party would you vote for?"
• "Do you approve of the current government's performance?"
• The results show Party A has 45% support. This is a measure of voting intention.

Purpose

• To give the media and the public an idea of how the election race is looking before the vote.
• To help political parties understand their strengths and weaknesses so they can change their campaign strategy.

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b) Exit Poll

An Exit Poll is a survey of people who have just voted, giving an early look at the result.

What is it?

• It's a survey to find out who people actually voted for.
• It collects data on the votes cast, making it a direct measure of voter behaviour.
• Exit polls are conducted on the day of the election, immediately after voters leave the polling place (the "exit").

How is it done?

• Surveyors stand outside selected polling booths (at a safe distance).
• They ask voters, right after they cast their ballot, which candidate or party they chose.
• They often ask why the person voted that way and collect demographic data like age and gender.

Example

On election day, a surveyor outside a polling booth asks a voter:

• "Which party did you just vote for?"
• If enough voters say they voted for Party B, the Exit Poll might predict that Party B will win more seats.18 This is a measure of actual action.

Purpose

• To provide an early prediction of the election result on election night before the official votes are counted.
• To help analysts understand who voted for whom and the different issues that influenced their final choice.

Opinion Poll vs Exit Poll: In a Nutshell

Conclusion

Wrapping up, the difference between an Opinion Poll and an Exit Poll is all about timing. The Opinion Poll measures a voter's intention before the election. The Exit Poll measures a voter's action after they have cast their ballot. While the former is prone to people changing their minds, the latter reflects the decision they actually made.

The Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 perfectly highlight this. Before voting, various Opinion Polls showed different levels of support for the major alliances, predicting trends during the campaign. However, the final Exit Polls, released after voting concluded on November 11, gave the first firm predictions of the likely seat count before the official results are announced on November 14. These polls offer essential data, but always remember they are just estimates, not final results.

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