Donald Trump Withdraws U.S. from Paris Climate Accord in Second Term: What It Means?

Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Paris Agreement is a crucial international effort with the goal of resolving climate change and its profound effects. 

The 195 countries that signed the agreement on April 22, 2016, after it was adopted in Paris on December 12, 2015, pledged to work together to prevent global warming.

Source : CarbonBrief

US Involvement in the Paris Agreement

The United States has had a tumultuous relationship with the Paris Agreement. Initially a leading participant during its adoption under the Obama administration, the U.S. later saw significant policy shifts:

• Withdrawal Under Trump (2017–2020): President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal from the agreement in 2017, formalizing it in 2020. He argued that the agreement placed undue economic burdens on the U.S. while benefiting competitor economies.
• Reentry Under Biden (2021): On his first day in office, President Joe Biden reversed Trump’s decision and rejoined the agreement, submitting ambitious new goals to cut U.S. climate pollution by up to 66% of 2005 levels by 2035.
• Second Withdrawal (2025): President Trump, in his second term, once again exited the agreement, prioritizing domestic fossil fuel production.

Despite these reversals, the international community has reiterated that the door remains open for the U.S. to rejoin.

What could be the future Impact After U.S. Withdraws from the Paris Agreement?

1. Global Impact

   • Lowering Climate Ambition : The United States contributes 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions, making it a large emitter. The agreement's overall impact by its departure.
   • Weakening of International Collaboration: The Paris Agreement depends on cooperation. Other countries might be deterred from upholding or strengthening their obligations if the United States withdraws.
   • Increased Global Warming: It will be harder to meet the target of keeping the rise in global temperatures to 1.5°C or 2°C if the United States doesn't contribute.

2.Economic and Technological Impact

• Change in Clean Energy Leadership: The United States may lose market share in green technologies if nations like China and the EU take the lead in clean energy innovation.
• Trade and Investment Impacts: U.S. trade could possibly be impacted by countries that sign the Paris Agreement establishing tariffs or restrictions on goods from countries that do not share their climate goals.

3.Diplomatic Effects

• U.S. withdrawal weakens its global climate leadership, strains alliances, and allows powers like China and the EU to fill the leadership void.

4. Domestic Impact

• State and local entities remain committed to climate goals, but the U.S. risks losing green industry jobs and increasing dependence on fossil fuels.

5. Environmental Consequences

• Reduced U.S. efforts heighten climate risks (e.g., extreme weather, sea-level rise) and limit aid for developing nations reliant on Paris Agreement support.

How Can a Country Withdraw from the Paris Agreement?

The Paris Agreement, a critical international treaty addressing climate change, allows countries to withdraw under specific conditions outlined in Article 28. Below is a step-by-step explanation of the withdrawal process, timeline, and implications.

Withdrawal Process Under Article 28 of Paris Agreement:

1. Eligibility to Withdraw:

• A country may only initiate the withdrawal process three years after the Agreement has entered into force for that nation. Since the Agreement came into effect in 2016, this condition applies from the date it became binding for the specific country.

2. Notification of Withdrawal:

• The country must submit a written notification of its decision to withdraw to the Depositary, which is the Office of Legal Affairs of the United Nations (UN), based in New York.

3. Timeline for Withdrawal:

• The withdrawal takes effect one year after the Depositary receives the notification.
• Alternatively, the withdrawing nation can specify a later date in the notification, which then becomes the effective withdrawal date.

4. Participation Until Withdrawal is Finalized:

• Until the withdrawal is officially effective, the country remains a party to the Agreement and must continue participating in all activities under it.

What are the Key Considerations for Global Governance,its Implications for Withdrawal and rejoining the Agreement?

1. Global Climate Governance:

• Withdrawing from the Paris Agreement does not absolve a country of the climate challenges it faces. 
• It may also impact international relations, as the Agreement is a global effort requiring collective action.

2. Implications for the Withdrawing Nation:

• A withdrawal might reflect the nation's shifting priorities, often leaning toward domestic interests like energy independence or economic policies over environmental commitments.

3. Rejoining the Agreement:

• If a country later decides to re-enter, it must go through the formal process of re-ratification, which may involve domestic legislative approval.

What are the Objectives of the Paris Agreement?

1. Temperature Targets: The agreement aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with a more ambitious aspiration of capping the increase at 1.5°C by the end of the century. This distinction highlights the urgency emphasized by climate scientists regarding the risks associated with surpassing the 1.5°C threshold.
2. Support for Vulnerable Nations: A core goal is to assist countries most affected by climate change through financial aid, technology transfer, and capacity-building initiatives.
3. Transition to Clean Energy: The agreement emphasizes the need for a global shift toward renewable energy and increased energy efficiency to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

Source : treeaid.org

How are other countries involved in reducing emissions? 

• Countries participating in the Paris Agreement commit to developing and reporting their individual climate action plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), every five years. 
• These contributions outline how each nation will reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts. While the NDCs are not legally binding, they provide a framework for accountability and progress.

What are the Achievements and Financial Pledges of other countries?

Achievements & Financial Pledges by other countries is

• Developed Nations’ Commitment: Developed countries pledged $100 billion annually to assist developing nations in their climate action efforts.
• Launch of Initiatives: Programs like the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) and Climate Risk Insurance were supported by contributions, including $420 million from the G7 nations.

What is India’s Role in the Paris Agreement?

India has played a proactive role in climate action:

• Emission Reductions: India pledged to reduce the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33–35% by 2030 from 2005 levels.
• Renewable Energy Goals: A target of generating 175 GW of renewable energy by 2022 and achieving 40% of installed capacity from non-fossil fuels by 2030.
• Afforestation Efforts: Plans to increase forest cover to absorb an estimated 2.5 billion tonnes of CO2.

Comparison: Kyoto Protocol vs. Paris Agreement

Here is detailed given below:

What are the Global Impacts & Challenges? 

• The Paris Agreement established an important precedent for international climate cooperation, but it confronts implementation issues. 
• In the absence of binding measures, much is dependent on national commitment and political will. As global temperatures are already expected to exceed 1.5°C by 2025, there was never so much demand for immediate action.

Clean energy transitions, supported by technology developments and financial investments, provide hope. The worldwide clean energy market was assessed at more than $2 trillion in 2024, indicating prospects for both economic growth and climate mitigation.

In conclusion, one of the pillars of international climate policy is still the Paris Agreement. Its success hinges on long-term international cooperation, challenging goals, and fair assistance for weaker countries. The Paris Agreement serves as a reminder of what can be accomplished via coordinated effort as the globe struggles with the effects of climate change.

Read| What Are The Key Differences Between Paris Agreement and Kyoto Protocol?