US Religious Landscape Is Getting Changed: Christians Could Be Less Than 50% By 2070

Christianity is one of the most widespread religions in the world. However, the religious landscape of America is changing gradually yet dramatically, especially since the 1990s. The 1990s witnessed vast numbers of Americans refusing to acknowledge and recognize themselves as Christians and joining the increasing American populace of atheists. A growing trend to describe oneself as an agnostic, atheist, or just “nothing in particular”. The religious landscape of the United States is thus taking a different shape with citizens moving towards atheism from Christianity. Many individuals and groups are wondering and making their estimates regarding the future of religion in the United States in the coming 50 years and after.

As per the Pew Research Center estimates, around 64% of the United States including children were Christian in 2020. The 30% of the remaining population were actually people who did not affiliate themselves with any religion. Such folks are sometimes referred to as religious “nones”. The rest 6% of the populace was the adherents of other religions like Hindus, Muslims, Jews, Buddhists, and more.

The story now depends on the probability of religious switching. Estimates by Pew in a recent report “Modeling the Future of Religion in America” show that Christians in America of all age groups can shrink from 64% to just a little more than 54% by the year 2070. Over the same time frame, the “nones”, meaning the ones who do not associate themselves with any religion, would rise to a point in the range of 34% to 52% from 30% of the US population.

However, Pew also makes it clear that these assumptions are mere projections and do not guarantee the change as said.

Let’s analyze the possibilities

Possibility 1: U.S. Christians To Fall Below 50% Of Population In Case Recent Trend Continues

Possible Reasons

Steady Switching

Movement in and out of the umbrella of Christianity remains at a stable position at lately observed rates. This implies that in each generation, 31% of Christians turn religiously unaffiliated before they get 30 years old, and 21% of unaffiliated people join Christianity.

Rising Disaffiliation (with limits)

In every generation, a substantial share of Christianity turns unaffiliated before they turn 30, while a small share of unaffiliated people turns their heads to Christianity. Here, the cap is imposed to prevent the portion of Christians from switching out to rising above 50%.

Rising Disaffiliation (without limits)

Every generation comes with an increasing share of Christians switching out before their age is 30, while a narrowing share of unaffiliated people switch to the religion of Christianity. Here, no cap is imposed.

No Switching

Not a single person in the United States has or will switch their religion post-2020.

Possibility 2: U.S. “Nones” To Become Majority By 2070 In Case Recent Switching Pattern Continues

Possible Reasons

No Switching

No one in the United States has or will change religion post-2020.

Rising Disaffiliation (without limits)

Every generation comes with an increasing share of Christians switching out before they get 30 years old, while a narrowing portion of “nones” switch in. Here, no cap is imposed on switching rates.

Rising Disaffiliation (With limits)

In every new generation, the increasing share of Christians switch out before their age is 30, while a narrowing share of the unaffiliated people switch in. The switching rate here is capped.

Steady Switching

Moving in and out of the umbrella of Christianity stays stable at the lately observed rates. That is, in every new generation, 31% of Christians turn “nones” before their age is 30, and 21% of unaffiliated folks turn toward Christianity.