Cyclone Michaung: The depression that had developed over the South Andaman Sea and the nearby Southeast Bay of Bengal, according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday, became a well-defined low-pressure area at 8:30 am today. It is predicted to move west-northwestward and intensify into a depression over the Southeast Bay of Bengal on November 30.
According to the IMD report, "It is anticipated to shift towards the west-northwest and strengthen into a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal on November 29. After that, it is probably going to continue northwest and strengthen over the next 48 hours into a cyclonic storm over the southeast Bay of Bengal."
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What is Cyclone Michaung and Its meaning?
The cyclone is expected to pack a maximum wind speed of 60-70 kmph, gusting to 80 kmph. Michaung is named after a suggestion by Myanmar. It is the sixth cyclone in the Indian Ocean and the fourth in the Bay of Bengal.
It is expected that by November 30, the system will be moving west-northwest across the southeast Bay of Bengal, perhaps strengthening into a depression. Within the next 48 hours, the system is predicted to transform into cyclone Michaung.
Cyclone Michaung’s Intensity Track
According to the IMD's global forecasting system, on or around December 1, the low-pressure region that has been approaching the coast of Tamil Nadu would intensify into a cyclonic storm by the southwest Bay of Bengal. After that, it is probably going to get stronger, turn around, and travel north-northwest till December 4, when it is expected to cross the beaches of South and North Odisha by December 5 as a very strong cyclonic storm.
A similar course is shown by another model, with the exception that landfall will take place on December 6. However, the NCUM model predicts a shift to the west-northwest, the formation of a depression by December 4, and the subsequent emergence of a severe cyclonic storm. Ultimately, the multi-model ensemble of the IMD predicts that the depression will form by November 29 and then move northwestward and northward, intensifying into a severe storm.
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Impact of Cyclone Michaung
The Andaman Islands will receive light to moderate rainfall with sporadic areas of extremely heavy rainfall on November 30.
Irrespective of its movement, the system’s presence is set to trigger rough sea conditions and gusty winds in the Bay of Bengal. Accordingly, the fisherfolk have been strictly advised against venturing into the waters over the next few days.
According to the early predictions, the Indian mainland, including Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha will be in the yellow zone on Saturday, Dec 2. Other than these, coastal areas can expect rough sea conditions and gusty winds under the influence of cyclone Michaung. To avoid any fatality, fishermen are advised strictly to venture into the waters over the next few days.
Also, moderate precipitation accompanied by heavy to very heavy rains (64.5 mm-204.5 mm) is expected to shower over the Nicobar Islands between Tuesday and Thursday (Nov 28-30).
In conclusion, Cyclone Michuang is said to be the fourth cyclonic storm and sixth Indian Ocean cyclone of the year. Seven districts of Odisha including Balasore, Bhadrak, Kendrapara, Jagatsinghpur, Puri, Khurda and Ganjam are on alert amid the cyclone by the Odisha government.
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