Scientists of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in the month of June 2013 have found that the pattern of the Indian monsoon is supposed to change under global warming in the future.
Research supported with Computer simulations and a comprehensive set of 20 state-of-the-art climate models shows that Indian monsoon daily variability might increase. The ongoing ups-and-downs of Indian monsoon rainfall are likely to increase under warming.
It is found by the Scientist that a 4% to 12% variability change of daily monsoon rainfall in India is to be expected with 1 degree Celsius of warming. There is also a chance of 13% to 50% change in variability will take place if greenhouse gases continue to be emitted unabated.
As per the analysis if global warming would be limited to the internationally acknowledged threshold of 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, this would bear the risk of additional day-to-day variability between 8% to 24%.
It is important here to note that about 80% of annual rainfall in India occurs during the monsoon season from June through September. Factors that could disturb rainfall regularity include the higher holding capacity of moisture of the warmer air, but also more complex phenomena like cooling in the higher atmosphere which changes current pressure and thereby rainfall patterns.
The researchers focused on the 10 models with the most realistic monsoon pattern - a conservative approach, as these 10 models yield generally lower rates of change. The other 10 models showed higher rates of change.