India’s population will overtake China by 2027: UN Report 2019

UN Report World Population Prospects 2019 says that India is expected to cross China’s population by year 2027 as world’s most populous country.

Representative Image
Representative Image

United Nations has released its World Population Prospects 2019 recently. This report explained that India is expected to show the highest population increase between now and 2050, overtaking China as the world’s most populous country, by around 2027. India, along with eight other countries, will make up over half of the estimated population growth between now and 2050.

The nine countries expected to show the biggest increase are India, Nigeria and Pakistan, followed by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States of America. In all, the population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to practically double by 2050.

India specific findings

•    India is expected to add nearly 273 million people between 2019 and 2050, while the population of Nigeria is projected to grow by 200 million. Together, these two countries could account for 23% of the global population increase to 2050.
•    The 2017 world population report, released by the UN two years ago, had estimated that the population of India will surpass that of China's by around 2024.
•    China, with 1.43 billion people in 2019, and India, with 1.37 billion, have long been the two most populous countries of the world, comprising 19 and 18 per cent, respectively, of the global total in 2019.
•    After  this  re-ordering  between  2019  and  2050,  the  ranking of the two largest countries is projected to be preserved through the end of the century, when India   could   remain   the   world’s   most   populous   country with nearly 1.5 billion inhabitants, followed by  China  with  just  under  1.1  billion.

Decrease in population size

As per the World Population Prospects 2019, a growing number of countries are experiencing a decrease in population size. This is due to sustained low levels of fertility and, in some places, high rates of emigration. Between  2019  and  2050,  55  countries  or  areas  are  expected  to  see  their  populations  decrease  by  at  least one per cent (figure 9). In the largest of these, China,  the  population  is  projected  to  shrink  by  31.4  million,  or  2.2  per  cent.  As  a  proportion  of  the  total  population,  the  largest  projected  declines  are for Lithuania and Bulgaria, where the projected population in 2050 will be 23 per cent smaller than in 2019, followed by Latvia (22 per cent), the Wallis and Futuna Islands (20 per cent), and Ukraine (20 per  cent). 

Global findings

•    World's population is expected to increase by two billion people in the next 30 years, from 7.7 billion currently to 9.7 billion in 2050.
•    By 2050, one in six people in the world will be over age 65 (16 per cent), up from one in 11 in 2019 (9 per cent).
•    The number of people aged 80 years or over is projected to triple, from 143 million in 2019 to 426 million in 2050.
•    Although overall life expectancy will increase (from 64.2 years in 1990 to 77.1 years in 2050), life expectancy in poorer countries will continue to lag behind.


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