India Released Report on Climate Change

Union Environment and Forests minister Jairam Ramesh released a report by the name Climate Change and India: A 4x4 Assessment A sectoral and regional analysis for 2030s on 16 November 2010. The report assesses the impact of climate change in 2030s on four key sectors of the Indian economy, namely Agriculture, Water, Natural Ecosystems & Biodiversity and Health in four climate sensitive regions of India, namely the Himalayan region, the Western Ghats, the Coastal Area and the North-East Region. The Report was prepared by the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA).

Key Findings of the 4x4 Assessment Report

1. Climate Change Projections
• Climate change for 2030s suggest an overall warming for all the
regions in focus. The net increase in annual temperatures in 2030s with respect to
1970s ranges from 1.7 degree Celsius to 2.2 degree Celsius, with maximum increase in coastal regions. The extreme maximum and minimum temperatures are also projected to increase in 2030s with respect to 2070s.
• All the regions are projected to experience an increase in precipitation in
2030s with respect to 1970s and the increase is most in the Himalayan region and least in the North Eastern region. The extreme precipitation events are likely to increase by 5-10 days in all the regions.

2. Rise in Sea Level
Sea level along the Indian coast has been rising at the rate of 1.3mm/year and is
likely to rise in consonance with the global sea level rise in the future. Further
projections indicate that although the frequency of cyclones is likely to decrease in 2030s, the cyclones are likely to be more intense.

3. Agriculture
• Irrigated rice in all the regions are likely to gain in yields marginally due to
warming as compared to the rainfed crop as the irrigated rice tends to benefit from CO2 fertilization effect. Maize and sorghum are projected to have reduced yields in all the regions. The Coconut productivity is projected to rise in the western coast and reduce in the eastern coastal region. Observations indicate a reduction in apple production in the Himalayan region, which is likely to continue in the future.
• In case of marine fisheries some species will gain in yields, as the warming
favours their productivity such as Sardines. Some species like Indian mackerel are
likely to move upwards to the northern latitudes thus maintaining their yields.
Species like Threadfin breams, may shift their spawning seasons adjusting to the
season which optimally favours spawning temperatures.
• With overall warming, the thermal humidity index is projected to increases in all
the regions, especially in the months of May and June, leading to stress to the
livestock and hence reduction in its milk productivity.

4.Water
•Water yield is projected to increase in the Himalayan region in 2030s by 5-20%, however, water yields are likely to be variable across the North Eastern region, Western Ghats, and Coastal region. In some places in these regions, it is projected to increase and in some places it is projected to decrease.
•Moderate to extreme drought severity is projected in 2030s for the Himalayan region with respect to the other regions. All the regions are likely to experience flooding which are exceeding existing magnitudes by 10% to 30%.

5.Forests
•Change is projected for 8%, 18%, 56%, and 30% of the vegetation grids and
increase in Net Primary Productivity by 23%, 20%, 57%, and 31% is projected in Western Ghats, North eastern region, Himalayan region, and the Coastal region.

6.Human Health – Malaria
•Malaria is projected to spread in new areas in Jammu and Kashmir in the
Himalayan region. In the North eastern region opportunities for transmission is likely to increase for a longer period. In the Western Ghats, no change is observed between in 2030s and the trends observed in 1970s.
However, in the Coastal region, especially in the eastern coast a marked decrease in number of months is projected in which that the malaria transmission window would be open.
However, in the coastal region, especially in the eastern coast of India there is a decrease in number of months when malaria transmission would be taking place.

Important Information
•INCCA (Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment) is a network-based programme that brings together over 120 institutions and over 220 scientists from across the country to undertake scientific assessments of different aspects of climate change.
•The Minister for Environment & Forests had announced the launch of the Indian Network of Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) on October 14, 2009.
•This is the second major publication of INCCA. The first report, published in May2010, was on India’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2007, making India the first developing country to publish such updated data.
•INCCA is preparing to publish its next report in May 2011 on India’s carbon aerosol (black carbon) programme.
•The 4x4 assessment report, prepared by the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA), has for the first time calculated the impact of global warming on India in 2030s. Earlier reports had longer time frames of 2050 and 2070.  The report comes ahead of the annual international climate change negotiations scheduled to begin 29 November in Cancun, Mexico.  

India released this report to build its own independent and creditable research capacity on the issue of climate change. The report is a step in the direction of comprehensive assessment of climate change on India at both national and regional levels. India is one of the most vulnerable country at present in the world, exposed to the risks of the climate change.