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La Nina likely to appear, give boost to south west monsoon in 2020

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has stated that while the occurrence of La Nina is not certain, it will mean that there is now around a 50% chance of one forming in 2020.

Jun 25, 2020 14:19 IST
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The international forecasters have informed that the southwest monsoon is likely to get a boost as the chances of the La Nina phenomenon increases, which has been associated with above-normal rainfall.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has stated that while the occurrence of La Nina is not certain, it will mean that there is now around a 50% chance of one forming in 2020.

BOM has also raised its El-Nino Southern Oscillation Alert (ENSO) outlook status to La Nina watch. As per the Australian weather office, 50% is roughly double the likelihood of La Nina occurring in any year.

What causes La Nina Phenomenon?

La Nina phenomenon is caused by the cooling of the Pacific Ocean surface waters.

The Head of long-range forecasting at the BOM, Andrew Watkins explains that the changes in the surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean have indicated a rise in the chance of the La Nina event this year.

Key Highlights:

•  The news of an above-normal rainfall will cheer policymakers and farmers as it will raise the prospects of another record harvest.

•  It will also further enhance the agricultural growth among other sectors of the economy, which have been down because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

•  A good monsoon will also rural income and the demand for automobiles, consumer goods, and gold.

•  The Indian Meteorological Department had also earlier forecasted a mild La Nina that will form in the later half of the monsoon. Their forecast was consistent with BOM observations.

•  An above-average monsoon season has been expected this year, with a prediction of 104% of the long-performing average, which currently stands at 88 cm for the country.

Monsoon in India in 2020:

Currently, Indian has been receiving a healthy bout of monsoon rainfall with over 22% above rainfalls across the country. Central India has seen vigorous rainfall, with 59% above normal rain between June 1 to June 24.

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