Bangladesh Nationalist Party boycotts elections. How will this impact Bangladesh?

Everything began on October 28 this year when an important opposition party of Bangladesh, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) organized a rally that took a violent turn. A huge fight took place between the law enforcement officials and the BNP cadre. This heated fight led to the death of a policeman, which spurred controversy. Not to miss, the fight became so unmanageable that it also included arson incidents. 

The result of the chaos? Sheikh Hasina, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh sought to put some of the most eminent opposition leaders of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) behind bars. The leaders who were put to jail also included Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, the Secretary-General.

This step of the Prime Minister added to the demand of the BNP asking for the elections to be held under a "caretaker" government. The party declined to participate in the elections coming forward. On the other hand, the poll date for January 7 has been announced by the Election Commission of Bangladesh.

What could be the reason behind this strong step of the BNP to boycott the elections? Let's understand.

The reasons for which BNP is boycotting elections

The leaders of Bangladesh have stated that they are not going to participate in the polls held in January. The rationale that the leaders give is that they do not think that the upcoming elections will be held in a free and fair manner under the Awami government.

Despite this expression, the party did not clearly express how this technique of not participating in the elections is going to help them reach their ambition of attaining political power in Bangladesh. The party was defeated in the elections of 2009 and since then, the party has not gained political power. The party thinks of this boycott of elections as a method of protest, and this may delegitimize the upcoming elections in the country on January 7.

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Are there other parties too who are choosing to boycott the elections?

Definitely. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party is just one of the parties that are choosing to boycott the upcoming elections. There are 14 parties in all who refuse to participate in the polls of January 7. On the other side, 26 other parties are participating in the elections. 

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has iterated that the polls are going to be legitimate, as numerous parties are expected to be a part of the upcoming elections.

However, critics say that while there are many parties other than the Awami League ready to participate in the January elections in the country, a majority of these participating parties are small ones, and thus, they would not have enough support or power to be in a state to challenge the ruling party, i.e., the Awami League. Now, the critics are looking forward to what the Prime Minister chooses to do.

With the BNP refusing to participate, how will the elections impact Bangladesh?

Top leaders of the BNP such as Tarique Rahman have been based out of Bangladesh in the last fifteen years. Additionally, it is believed that the robust dominance of Tarique Rahman over the Bangladesh Nationalist Party is preventing its dialogue with the Awami League.

The BNP also comprised of strong leaders such as Amir Khasru, Mahmud Chowdhury, Alamgir, and more. While the BNP holds a strong street presence in the country, the Islamist hardline has been dominating the party's street presence. The agitations of the party have been taken over by the Islami Chhatra Shibir and the Jamaat-e-Islami. In case the BNP refuses to participate in the elections of January, there exists an apprehension that the Bangladeshi Islamist groups may step up in its place.

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Is violence anticipated?

Well, the government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has managed to maintain stability and peace in the country so far. While violence is unlikely to take place between the two sides, there still exists a danger of violence from the Islamist organizations in case things get out of control.

The fairness of the upcoming elections

The government of Sheikh Hasina has called international observers to have a look at the election process. Masud bin Momen, the Foreign Secretary, came to Delhi in order to connect with foreign diplomats. Foreign diplomats have been invited to be there in Bangladesh to see the election and ensure that the government of Sheikh Hasina stays aligned with the freeness and fairness of the election. 

However, the elections without the BNP are not seen as a real competition. The history of the 2014 elections may repeat this time as well. This is because the BNP boycotted elections in 2014 as well. The BNP has been incessantly demanding elections under a caretaker government. However, the Awami League has expressed that the law does not allow this kind of arrangement.

On the other side, the European Union and the United States have been putting immense pressure on Bangladesh to conduct free and transparent elections. However, China and Russia are of the view that the United States is attempting to interfere in the democratic process of elections in Bangladesh. On this matter, India has remained silent. 

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