What are unabated fossil fuels? How is the term defined by the COP28 nations?

In late November, various nations are going to be a part of the COP28 climate summit to be held in Dubai. The countries will seek to discuss speeding up the shift from fossil fuels to "unabated" fossil fuels.

The term as an adjective is made to refer to something sans any decrease in strength or intensity. However, lately, the word has been used along with fossil fuels. What does the term "unabated fossil fuels" actually mean amid international discussions on fossils, greenhouse gases, and the environment in general? 

The piece of content you are reading may clear all your doubts. Let's understand everything, piece by piece, one by one.

Point one: Understanding "unabated" emissions

When fossil fuels are burnt, the emissions get released into the air. These emissions become a huge contributor to global warming. This is what it means by unabated emissions.

Does it increase global warming to a great extent? Yes.

Is it still a common practice at present? Certainly!

What can reduce or abate such emissions?

Well, abating these emissions could be a task. It would need restrictions. High-end technology that can store and bury gases such as carbon dioxide and more that heat the planet and are emitted from activities such as coal-fired power production is needed.

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Point two: The role of COP summits to "abate" such emissions

Countries participating in the COP agreements till now have joined hands to abate such emissions.

In the year 2021 with the COP26, the participating countries agreed upon enhancing their efforts towards a gradual reduction of unabated coal power. Coal is the most polluting fossil fuel. The COP26 agreed to the Paris Rulebook and the Glassgow Climate Pact as well. 

In the year 2022, the climate summit, COP27, was held in Egypt when over 200 countries assented to the intention to enhance their efforts towards a gradual reduction of unabated coal power. 

Coming back to the present, the COP28 conference is going to be held from November 30 to December 12, in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Many countries intend to move towards a broader and more robust commitment to eliminate all unabated fossil fuels such as natural gas, oil, and coal.

However, despite the collective intention, there is no unanimous agreement or understanding of what "abated" actually means.

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Point three: Important issues for COP28 and the definition of "abatement"

What fossil fuels are "abated"?

Well, the answer is unclear. A climate policy expert from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Gerrit Hansen, says, that "nobody knows" what abated fossil fuels are. "That's trick", the climate policy expert further added. Gerrit Hansen further clarified that the term is intentionally kept ambiguous.

The intended haziness of "unabated" proves to be politically advantageous. Why so? If there was a fixed definition of the term, it wouldn't have given a potential compromise between the countries that aspire for an instantaneous move to cleaner energy and others that see themselves relying on fossil fuels and coal.

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Point Four: Is the unclear definition of "abated" having downsides too?

An unclear definition of the term "abated" in this context also means that countries that rely on fossil fuels might believe that even a slight reduction, as slight as 1%" would also come in the ambit of "abated". This has been argued by Hansen. He further said that this would definitely not make any sense.

An unclear definition of the term puts the world a risk of reaching above 2.7 Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees) of warming above the pre-industrial days in the upcoming years. This could be one of the most devastating impacts on the environment. The solution? Enforcement of stringent limits on emissions. Over 80 percent of the world's energy use is accounted for by fossil fuels.

Point six: Nations and their own distinct definitions of "abatement"

COP28 will comprise governments that have their own sharply distinct definitions of abatement.  For instance, a high-ambition coalition presented a plan a month prior to COP28 to eliminate fossil fuel production and utilization fully.

The coalition included countries like Colombia, New Zealand, France, and Kenya, but also comprised of island developing states like Grenada and Tuvalu. The coalition is of the view that technologies that aim to reduce emissions at present are available but only at a quite limited scale. Moreover, the coalition believes that these technologies will hold a "minor" role to play.

Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and India do not clear the confusion with their definitions. 

UAE sent a pre-summit note in which it talked about working in the direction of an energy system that is free of unabated fossil fuels by mid-century, "with coal being a priority".
In the G7 group, top industrialized democracies called for a large global effort to accelerate the gradual elimination of unabated fossil fuels to hit the net zero target in energy systems by the year 2050,

The United States wishes to phase out fossil fuels that are unabated while encouraging carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology.

The aim of phasing out unabated fossil fuels is also being attempted by the European Union. It wishes to attain an energy sector that is predominantly free of fossil fuels well ahead of the year 2050. The term "predominantly" in this aim is open to discussion and interpretation.

Annoyance has been expressed by a few environmental groups over continued reliance on fossil fuels. Doug Parr, the UK policy director for Greenpeace expressed, "We're focused on getting rid of fossil fuels altogether, without weasel words,"

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Point seven: Finally, definitions of "unabated" and "abated"?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change brought forward a report in 2023 that said that abatement ought to greatly decrease greenhouse gas emissions.

It talks about "capturing 90% or more carbon dioxide from power plants, or 50-80% of fugitive methane emissions from energy supply." One of the main components of natural gas is methane.

Scientists have tried hard to deduce strict definitions of the terms.

In a working paper of 2023,  scientist Christopher Bataille and others expressed that if the word "unabated" is kept poorly defined, it can lead to the interpretation of the commitment to be open.

In the report, Bataille, along with his co-authors, suggested that the word "abated" should only be used in case the fossil fuel emissions are decreased by a percentage of 90 to 95, for example with CCS to capture greenhouse gases from the air.

Stricter regulations should focus on limiting methane leaks to near zero. Countries like Russia and Turkmenistan lose substantial amounts of methane due to leaky infrastructure.

Amid a time when storms, heatwaves, wildfires, and floods are troubling mankind, Betaille has further expressed that we are losing time to create standards, especially for upcoming coal-fired power plants along with other industrial facilities.

On this, he said that the progress is faltering and slow.

COP28 Summit 2023- Schedule

The COP28 summit will commence on November 30 and will end on December 12, 2023. The Pre-sessionals will be held from 24 November to 29 November. The COP28 will be held at Expo City, Dubai in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The event is going to be the 28th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 28) to the UNFCCC.

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